Scottish independence: Not so much homage to Catalonia, more a warning for Scotland

As THE Catalan independence movement builds up a head of steam ahead of next month’s election, everyone is staying in character.

Artur Mas, the Catalan president, has called a snap election on 25 November as a plebiscite on some form of autonomy,  and more nakedly to win an  absolute majority.

He wraps himself up in the flag and righteous indignation, while the Spanish government hunkers down in what it insists is the immutability of the constitution and shuts its eyes to Catalan unrest and  international disquiet.

The two shout across the  divide, but there is no dialogue. To the Catalans, Madrid is the bully; to Madrid the Catalans are  grasping and disloyal.

“Mas has lost his way and he’s putting Spain’s financial stability at risk,” one minister complained. “At the same time they announce they want auto-determination, they ask the state for €5 billion, claiming it’s their money. Don’t they realise the Generalitat has been downgraded to junk bond status?”

To students of constitutional politics and wranglings between Edinburgh and London, there are some obvious parallels with the Scottish situation, but also some important differences.

The complaints of the Spanish government sound familiar when compared with UK government frustration with the rise of the SNP. Similarly, the SNP’s complaints about London rule have strong echoes of Mas.

In Scotland, however, Alex Salmond already has a majority, so where Mas’s election is driven by a desire for power, the SNP’s referendum has, ostensibly at least, the sole purpose of bringing about independence.

As Scotland faces the prospect of a form of constitutional change that divides the nation, the UK government and Scottish Government are at least still talking to each other.

The same cannot be said for Catalonia and Spain. There are no plans to meet, no talks about talks, and a pervasive air of unreality. Mas uses appeals for calm – “don’t be afraid, the constitution forbids them to use arms against us” – as a form of fear-mongering, while Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, Spain’s deputy prime minister, says that were there to be a referendum on Catalan independence, all Spaniards should have the right to vote.

That is an argument that will find some sympathy with those, in Britain, who believe that the potential break-up of the Union is a matter for the UK as a whole and not just for Scots.

In Catalonia, it’s not even clear that independence is on the table. Mas, who generally avoids the word and prefers to talk about “our own state”, said in an interview on Monday that “auto-determination is not the same thing as independence”. He did not elaborate.

So, is he, as some suggest, a closet secessionist who has finally come out?

Francesc de Carreras, chair of constitutional law at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, says there has always been a pro-independence wing in CiU, the ruling party. Jordi Pujol, the godfather and midwife of modern Catalan nationalism, has always wanted independence, Carreras says, it’s just that the time was not right.

Meanwhile, all the talk of independence is causing ructions in the business world. José Manuel Lara, boss of Planeta, Spain’s biggest publisher, said he would move his business “to Madrid, Zaragoza or Cuenca” if Catalonia became independent. Publishing is worth €2.8  billion in Spain, and 40 per cent of the industry is headquartered in Catalonia. “There’s no sense in having your headquarters in a country that speaks another language,” he said.

Many believe an independent Catalonia would have only one  official language, casting Spanish aside. Inevitably, there is an increasing debate about the economic viability of independence. Catalonia is by far Spain’s wealthiest region and accounts for 19 per cent of GDP.

Like the SNP, the Catalans’ main economic beef is that they contribute a lot more to the national purse than they get back.

Others maintain that Catalonia stands to lose economically from independence. Aside from what promises to be a hard-fought and poisonous divorce, the first thing a new independent government would wake up to is a €42 billion debt – and here the role of Europe is vital.

Would an independent Catalonia have to leave the EU and seek re-entry? No sooner had a Brussels spokesman confirmed that it would, another claimed there was no such mechanism. It appears that, like member states defaulting on their debts, secession is something the  EU constitution writers hadn’t anticipated.

Europe is a crucial piece of the puzzle for Catalans, and not just for economic reasons. Their lack of international recognition as a people irks them. A Scot is a Scot, wherever they go, but it hurts Catalans abroad that they are treated as a Spanish sub-species. Being a European member state would raise the profile of their national identity. It is just three weeks since a massive pro- independence demonstration, and there are seven weeks to go till election time.

“Independence is a step too far for many people who are keeping their mouths shut at the moment,” says Carreras.

“The people who never vote in the autonomous government elections because they see it as a Catalan affair will vote if they think they’re going to split from Spain. A lot is going to happen.

“The business reaction is going to be important. Now we’re going to talk about the issues. The next two months are not going to be as easy for Artur Mas as he might imagine.”