Latin America loses faith in democracy

But now it seems the people of the Andean region in particular are losing faith in their new-found democratic freedoms, having seen little of the promised benefits trickle down to them.

A study by the United Nations has revealed that in the Andean nations, which account for one-third of South America’s population, only 37.3% of people support democracy - the rest are either ambivalent or openly opposed to it.

The Andes represent a general trend in Latin America, where 54.7% of people say they would support an authoritarian government if it helped them financially. More than 60% cited unemployment, low wages and poverty as the region’s main problems.

Dante Caputo, a former Argentine foreign minister and head author of the UN report, said: "There is less support for democracy here than in any other region in the world. Democracy in Latin America is at risk. Intuition indicates that there are dangers, and our data confirms it.

"Electoral democracy is fine, and free and fair elections are held, but that is not enough. People do not feel that democracy has improved their economic situation or made them safer."

This may explain why in Peru Alberto Fujimori, the country’s former hard-line president, is now leading polls in a crowded field of potential candidates, with the current president, Alejandro Toledo, only achieving single-digit figures.

Across the border in Bolivia, the government had to fend off rumours last week that the military was planning a coup. And next door, indigenous politicians in Ecuador are gaining support for their call for a general uprising to force President Lucio Gutierrez out of office.

In Venezuela, the electoral board has set a tentative date for a recall vote on its left-wing leader, Hugo Chavez. And in Colombia more than 60% of the population support President Alvaro Uribe, who is pushing for a change to the constitution so that he can run for a second term.

But despite the impression of the people, strongmen do not necessarily bring economic improvement. In Venezuela, opponents have been trying for years to unseat what they see as an autocrat in Chavez, who has rewritten the constitution to cultivate more power while the economy founders.

The perception that democracy does not translate into better standards of living comes at a time when most countries in the Andes, and Latin America in general, are recuperating from years of stagnation. The World Bank expects Latin American economies to expand by an average of 4% this year.

Peru is expected to do even better. It has enjoyed one of its longest growth spurts - 32 months - during the Toledo administration. Gross domestic product is expected to grow by more than 5% his year, inflation is low and exports are on track to top 5.6bn. Polls, however, show that more than half of Peru’s 28 million people believe their economic situation will be the same or worse this year.

UN development programme administrator Mark Mallock Brown said the numbers can actually be a problem in a country like Peru, which has been unable to bring poverty below around 50%.

"Where you have a situation of perceived inequality, growth is as dangerous as non-growth, because it feeds the view that growth is being disproportionately enjoyed by the rich and increases the sense of political grievance and frustration with the system," he said.

The problem in Peru and in other Andean countries is that growth is being led by high international prices for raw materials such as gold, copper and hydrocarbons - industries that employ few people but boost export earnings and tax receipts. Peru’s economic recuperation is a jobless recovery, with the country registering a net loss of 40,000 workers last year.

Jorge Leon, a political scientist and researcher with an Ecuadorean think tank, believes there has also been a backlash against traditional political parties and the choice of "outsiders" as presidents.

Three of the region’s five presidents - Venezuela’s Chavez, Ecuador’s Gutierrez and Peru’s Toledo - never held political office before becoming president. Chavez and Gutierrez were vaulted to the presidency after leading coups, while Toledo gained fame in a tenacious fight to unseat Fujimori.

Bolivia’s Carlos Mesa, who also never held elected office, became president in October 2003 after street protests forced President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada to flee to the United States. Mesa is now facing pressure of his own, with a wave of strikes by university students and transportation unions leading to rumours that the military was planning to depose him.

Only Colombia’s Uribe had experience as a former mayor, governor and senator before winning the presidency. He did, however, buck the country’s traditional two-party system and became the first president elected as an independent there.

All this political inexperience adds up to disillusioned populations, according to Leon. "Voters have punished traditional political parties, many of which are corrupt, by choosing candidates from outside the system. The common denominator of these governments is the lack of a plan to run the government," he said.

"What you have in the Andes are unprepared presidents who know how to campaign but not govern."

A version of this article first appeared in Christian Science Monitor