Inside Conclave: The cardinals seen as contenders to be the next pope after Francis's death

A popular saying in Vatican circles is that if you “enter a conclave as pope, you leave as a cardinal”.

It implies the sacred and secretive process is no popularity contest or campaign, but rather the divinely inspired election of Christ’s Vicar on Earth by the princes of the church.

Nevertheless, there are always frontrunners, known as “papabile”, who have at least some of the qualities considered necessary to be pope – much like those depicted in last year’s Oscar-nominated film Conclave.

(From left to right): Cardinals Peter Erdo, Reinhard Marx and Pietro Parolin

Any baptised Catholic male is eligible, though only cardinals have been selected since 1378.

The winner must receive at least two-thirds of the vote from those cardinals under the age of 80 and thus eligible to participate.

Pope Francis, who died yesterday Monday, appointed the vast majority of electors, often tapping men who share his pastoral priorities, which suggests continuity rather than rupture.

Anyone trying to handicap the outcome should remember that Jorge Mario Bergoglio was considered too old to be elected pope in 2013 at 76, and that Karol Wojtyla was not on any frontrunner lists going into the 1978 conclave that elected him Pope John Paul II.

Some possible candidates to succeed Pope Francis are:

Cardinal Peter Erdo

The 72-year-old Archbishop of Budapest and primate of Hungary was twice elected head of the Council of European Episcopal Conferences, in 2005 and 2011, suggesting he enjoys the esteem of European cardinals who make up the biggest voting bloc of electors.

In that capacity, he got to know many African cardinals because the council hosts regular sessions with African bishops’ conferences.

He had even more exposure when he helped organise Francis’s 2014 and 2015 Vatican meetings on the family.

Cardinal Reinhard Marx

The 71-year-old Archbishop of Munich and Freising was chosen by Pope Francis as a key adviser in 2013, and was later named to head the council overseeing Vatican finances during reforms and belt-tightening.

The former president of the German bishops’ conference was a strong proponent of the controversial “synodal path” process of dialogue in the German church that began in 2020 as a response to the clergy sexual abuse scandal there.

As a result, he is viewed with scepticism by conservatives who considered the process a threat to church unity.

He made headlines in 2021 when he dramatically offered to resign as archbishop to atone for the German church’s dreadful abuse record, but Francis quickly rejected the resignation and told him to stay.

Cardinal Marc Ouellet

The 80-year-old Canadian led the Vatican’s influential bishops office for more than a decade, overseeing the key clearing house for potential candidates to head dioceses around the world.

Francis kept him in the job until 2023, even though he was appointed by Pope Benedict XVI, and thus helped select the more doctrinaire bishops preferred by the German pontiff.

Considered more of a conservative than Francis, Cardinal Ouellet still selected pastorally minded bishops to reflect Francis’s belief that bishops should “smell like the sheep” of their flock. He defended priestly celibacy for the Latin Rite church and upheld the ban on women’s ordination.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin

The 70-year-old Italian has been Francis’s secretary of state since 2014 and is considered one of the main contenders to be pope, given his prominence in the Catholic hierarchy.

The veteran diplomat oversaw the Holy See’s controversial deal with China over bishop nominations and was involved – but not charged – in the Vatican’s botched investment in a London real estate venture that led to the trial in 2021 of another cardinal and nine others.

A former ambassador to Venezuela, Cardinal Parolin would be seen as someone who would continue in Francis’s tradition, but as a more sober and timid diplomatic insider, returning an Italian to the papacy after three successive outsiders: St John Paul II (Poland), Benedict (Germany) and Francis (Argentina).

Cardinal Robert Prevost

The idea of an American pope has long been taboo, given the geopolitical power already wielded by the United States, but the Chicago-born 69-year-old could be a first.

He has extensive experience in Peru, first as a missionary and then an archbishop, and he is prefect of the Vatican’s powerful Dicastery for Bishops, in charge of vetting nominations for bishops around the world.

Francis clearly had an eye on him for years and sent him to run the diocese of Chiclayo, Peru, in 2014. He held that position until 2023, when Francis brought him to Rome.

Cardinal Robert Sarah

The 79-year-old, from Guinea, the retired head of the Vatican’s liturgy office, has long been considered the best hope for an African pope.

Beloved by conservatives, he would signal a return to the doctrinaire and liturgically minded papacies of John Paul II and Benedict.

Cardinal Sarah, who had previously headed the Vatican’s charity office Cor Unum, clashed with Francis on several occasions, none more seriously than when he and Benedict co-authored a book advocating the “necessity” of continued celibacy for Latin Rite priests.

Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn

The 80-year-old Archbishop of Vienna, Austria, was a student of Benedict’s, and thus on paper seems to have the doctrinaire academic chops to appeal to conservatives.

However, he became associated with one of Francis’s most controversial moves by defending his outreach to divorced and civilly remarried Catholics as an “organic development of doctrine”.