How the UK could get dragged further into conflict in the Middle East

As the whole world knows by now, Israel launched a series of devastating attacks on Iran in the early hours of Friday, targeting nuclear facilities and the regime’s leadership.

Operation Rising Lion seems to have caught the Iranians wrong-footed.

Two hundred IAF warplanes were involved, and most interestingly a number of drones were launched by Israeli special forces from within Iran itself, in a pastiche of the Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian airbases a few days ago.

Initial battlefield damage assessment suggests that the attacks were highly successful, although the full details will probably take some time to emerge. Amongst others, the head of the Iranian Republican Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, and Mohammad Bagheri, commander-in-chief of Iran’s military, plus several senior figures in Iran’s nuclear programme were killed.

People look over damage to buildings in Nobonyad Square following Israeli airstrikes in Tehran, Iran. Iran's three top military generals were killed in the attacks that also targeted nuclear and military facilities | Majid Saeedi

At a stroke Iran’s senior military hierarchy has been eliminated. That Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni was not among them is only down to Israel, who probably thought his demise might be a step too far at this stage.

The Israeli assault should come as no surprise to anyone. Iran is the fount of all evil in the region, and the writing has been on the wall for some time. The recent IAEA censure of Iran’s nuclear programme and the withdrawal of some US personnel in the Middle East were dead giveaways.

Israel made no secret of its assessment that currently Iran is politically and militarily weak, and there was hardly a better moment to strike its nuclear facilities and leadership. And so it has come to pass.

Where USA goes, UK will surely follow

This episode in the long-running conflict between Israel and Iran looks like it might be a longer confrontation than previous ones. If it continues for any length of time, and if Iran carries through its threat to attack US bases as well as Israel in retaliation, then it seems to me inevitable that the USA will be drawn in.

And where the USA goes the UK will surely follow. During the last tit-for-tat exchanges between the two Middle Eastern states RAF Typhoons were involved in knocking down incoming Iranian drones to defend Israel. I’d be most surprised if the same thing doesn’t happen this time around.

A woman chants slogans as people gather for a protest against Israel's wave of strikes on Iran in Enghelab (Revolution) Square in central Tehran | AFP via Getty Images

In any case, and notwithstanding what David Lammy may say, the UK is already involved. Britain’s retained bases in Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean include RAF Akrotiri, which is an important link in the communications chain to Israel and used by the UK, USA, and others for many years.

Plus it just so happens that the Royal Navy-led CSG25 task force, including aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales and her complement of F-35 fighter jets, is not so far away in the India Ocean and within range of Iran. And the Americans have long-range bombers on Diego Garcia.

To survive Iran needs to stop being intransigent over its nuclear problem and compromise or else face the very real prospect of defeat and regime change.

Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk