Haiti braced for more mayhem

But, amid a rising tide of revenge attacks on Aristide loyalists, islanders are bracing themselves for a fresh outbreak of violence.

After three years of political stalemate, the governing Lavalas Party and the opposition - a hodgepodge of small political parties, business leaders and student groups - are finally sitting down at the negotiating table. But the apparent easing of tensions belies a grim outlook for Haiti’s future, according to human rights activists on the island and analysts.

In Port-au-Prince, interim President Boniface Alexandre and his feeble police force are sharing power with the rebels, but bands of armed pro-Aristide supporters still control the city’s most destitute shantytowns.

In the country’s interior, a separate armed gang still controls the city of Gonaives, while rebel leader Guy Phillippe holds sway in Cap-Haitien, Haiti’s second-largest city.

There are many who believe the presence of international troops - US marines along with French and Canadian troops - will not prevent a bloody reckoning between the factions.

Yesterday, thousands of people demanding the return of Aristide marched on the US and French embassies, venting their anger at his ousting and denouncing the "occupation" of their homeland by the foreign troops.

About 3,000 protesters, a few with pistols tucked into their belts, charged past the embassies and the presidential national palace on Friday, chanting "Up with Aristide and down with Bush!"

"If it comes to that, we will confront the US marines," said demonstrator Pierre Paul, 35. "We will do the same thing that they are doing in Iraq."

As bodies pile up at the morgue following revenge killings of Aristide supporters, observers are warning of a repeat of the brutal repression that was unleashed after Aristide was deposed during a coup in September 1991 which led to three years of military dictatorship.

"The assassinations have already started, and what is the United States doing? What are the French doing? Nothing," said Bill Fletcher, president of TransAfrica Forum, a Washington-based lobbying and research group focusing on African and Caribbean issues.

"The leading forces against Aristide did not want a constitutional succession. They did not want to compete in democratic elections. They’re attempting to restore the past. It’s a disaster in that respect and it’s going to be a disaster for the occupation forces in Haiti."

On Thursday, Phillippe said he and his followers would disarm and return to the northern city of Cap-Haitien in an apparent response to US pressure after he had tried to arrest the prime minister and then anointed himself the nation’s "military chief".

But the rebels - who are led by suspected drug traffickers and notorious death squad chiefs convicted of human rights atrocities during the 1991-1994 military dictatorship - show no signs of disappearing into the woodwork.

And Phillippe, a former military officer and police chief accused of a December 2001 coup attempt, has demanded the restoration of Haiti’s notoriously repressive armed forces, which Aristide abolished in February 1995.

His promise to disarm appears to have been an empty one with no signs that the rebels are preparing to give up their weapons. The US marines are not actively attempting to disarm either the rebels or the armed pro-government groups.

While US Secretary of State Colin Powell has denounced the rebels as "thugs", he has expressed confidence in Phillippe. "We have ways of talking to the various rebel leaders, and I’m pleased that, at least so far, they’ve said they’re not interested in violence anymore and they want to put down their arms," he said last week.

But Brian Concannon is not taking any chances. For eight years he has headed efforts to bring human rights violators from the 1991-1994 military regime to justice as an attorney working for the Haitian government-funded International Lawyers’ Office.

Concannon has closed the office and said many of its employees have gone into hiding. "If you believe Phillippe is laying down his arms, I’ll sell you a story of weapons of mass destruction," joked Concannon grimly. He said Phillippe would certainly be involved behind the scenes and would want to make sure his influence was felt.

In the small colonial city of Petit-Goave, armed groups have been rounding up Aristide militants, who are thrown on the mercy of the population.

One Aristide official, Ti Roro, was hunted down over five days. Once caught, a crowd beat him with sticks, took him to a morgue to identify his alleged victims, ringed him with gasoline-soaked tyres and burned him alive.

"It took him more than an hour to die, but as he was burning, he admitted to all of the 15 people he killed in the last year," said Joubert Muraille, 41, who witnessed the killing. "He deserved it 1,000 times."

Roland Lysias said it was Ti Roro who killed his 21-year-old son, Junior, two months ago because he had been a member of an opposition group. He said Roro cut off his son’s feet, severed his hands, gouged out his eyes and set him ablaze.

"We had to treat evil with evil," said Lysias, 72, his hands shaking. "This is the only justice we can find right now."

It is amid this background of simmering violence that the political leaders of Aristide’s Lavalas party and the opposition are attempting to negotiate.

But the opposition has boycotted all elections since accusing the government of election fraud in May 2000, resulting in the suspension of parliament and the freezing of hundreds of millions of dollars in international aid.

Last month, opposition leaders refused to accept an internationally brokered peace plan and instead backed calls by the rebels that Aristide resign. The political opposition insists it has no links with the rebels despite suspicions they are closer than they admit.

Further complicating matters, the opposition is composed of myriad individuals and organisations who have been united, until now, by their antagonism to Aristide, a former slum priest who became a leader of mythic proportions as an opponent of military rule in the late 1980s.

Despite a widespread following among students and the working class in recent times, the opposition coalition

is still led by a tiny business and political elite and backed mainly by the middle and upper classes. Even in exile, Aristide is considered by many experts to be the most popular politician in Haiti, especially among the 80% of Haitians who are poor and black.