Afghanistan at risk of arming beyond its means, warns Nato

AN IRON mountain of military hardware is at risk of being left to rust on arrival in Afghanistan because the Kabul regime cannot afford its upkeep and western governments won’t foot the bill, western officials have warned.

Equipment worth around $2.7 billion (£1.65bn) – including 22,000 American vehicles, 20 Russian helicopters and transport planes from Italy – are due to arrive in Afghanistan in the next six months to help shore up its forces before Nato soldiers withdraw.

The US-led coalition is accused of building an army the Afghans cannot afford and they haven’t yet bought tanks or jet fighters.

By 2014 Nato expects to have spent $11bn on Afghanistan’s security infrastructure, $10bn on hardware, costing $6bn a year to sustain – more than three times president Hamid Karzai’s government’s total annual income.

“We are looking at how we can reduce that long-term costs,” said Major General Peter Fuller, deputy commander of Nato’s training mission.

Removing air-conditioning from Afghan bases had already saved $100 million a year, Gen Fuller said, and instead of buying nine types of armoured vehicle they chose just three, to cut the costs of spares and training.

Afghan officials wanted Black Hawk helicopters, but Gen Fuller said they bought Russian Mi-17s because they perform better at high altitude, and are cheaper and easier to maintain.

C-27 transport planes were bought secondhand from the Italian Air Force, and the 120mm artillery guns were bought in Bosnia, Slovakia and Lithuania and refurbished, he said.

Yet western officials fear the savings are not enough. “They’ll be lucky to have $2bn a year, not six,” said one. “At the end of the day Afghanistan’s got more soldiers than it can pay for.”

Pressure to cut costs is likely to increase today when a US Commission on Wartime Contracting reports to Congress warning $30bn has been wasted in Iraq and Afghanistan in the past decade.

“At least that much could again turn into waste if the host governments are unable or unwilling to sustain US-funded projects after our involvement ends,” the authors warned.

The new air of austerity in Afghanistan has prompted unflattering comparisons with the Soviets, who gave Afghanistan a Mig jets, trained fighter pilots and put an Afghan into space.

Gen Fuller said there was no point trying to build an army like America’s.

“An F-16 [fighter jet] costs around $7,000 an hour to operate. The Afghans can’t afford that. We’re sourcing a light attack aircraft, a turbo prop, that will give them great performance without the expense.”

Nato analysts and the World Bank have launched studies to predict what will happen to Afghanistan when foreign aid stops. Nato’s research suggests security forces will have to be scaled back. Gen Fuller said. “You can save a lot just by adjusting salaries; reduce your maintenance costs by not running your vehicles as much; reduce your operating costs by not repairing them at the same rate.”

At the moment Afghanistan’s armed forces are overwhelmingly funded by US aid, but they also get money via Nato, the Afghan government, and a dedicated Law and Order trust fund heavily funded by Japan. Gen Fuller predicted Afghan revenue would rise, but Nato and the Law and Order trust have collected less than half what they are supposed to.

Gen Fuller said Afghanistan could cut the number of soldiers and increase police.

“If the security situation changes, you really want your police to do more police missions and you probably need less army,” General Fuller said.