Wheels come off the drive for road tolls

Independent research suggests the council will suffer an embarrassing defeat in the controversial road tolls referendum ballot, which is due to start on Monday.

The poll by Scottish Opinion, commissioned by the Evening News, reveals only one in five voters is prepared to back the council’s proposals for a 2 congestion charge.

According to the research, a resounding 65 per cent of Edinburgh residents intend to reject the tolls; if the results prove to be an accurate predictor of the referendum result, the council cannot hope to win.

Even if those surveyed who said they have yet to make up their minds all decide to vote "yes", it would only increase the vote in favour of the tolls to 35 per cent.

Scottish Opinion reports the margin for error in its research was plus or minus 1.2 to 4.4 per cent - again not enough to significantly alter the poll findings.

If the research proves accurate, the council will be forced to abandon its plans to charge motorists 2 to drive across one of two cordons, one inside the city bypass and another around the city centre.

Council leaders can take some comfort from the fact the majority of Edinburgh people appear to agree traffic levels are an issue: 65 per cent of those polled said the city "definitely" has a congestion problem, while another 17 per cent said it "possibly" does.

The results also indicate that voters would be more likely to consider supporting the tolls if the council had dropped the proposed outer cordon. The number of definite "no" votes dropped to 34 per cent when people were asked how they would vote if only the inner cordon was planned. The telephone poll, which surveyed 538 Edinburgh residents over the age of 18 between January 26 and 27, is the first independent piece of research to gauge public feeling in the city about the road-toll plans.

The findings will deliver a significant blow to council leaders, who have argued the tolls are the only way to tackle rising congestion in the city and to raise sufficient revenue for future public transport improvements.

The council has estimated that tolls would generate 760 million over 20 years for public transport improvements. Without that revenue, plans for a third tram line to the Royal Infirmary and other projects face an uncertain future.

The referendum has been dogged by controversy, particularly after it emerged tens of thousands of voters who opted out of the edited electoral register will not be eligible to vote.

Nevertheless, the opinion poll results indicate that there will be a high turn-out, with 69 per cent of those surveyed saying they would definitely vote, and another 15 per cent indicating they would possibly vote. If borne out by the results, this would show a higher turnout than at the last General Election, when only 59.4 per cent of the electorate voted.

Of those who intend to vote, 65 per cent said they would vote "no", 20 per cent will vote "yes" and 15 per cent said they were unsure.

Those aged between 45 and 54 were most likely to vote "yes", with 30 per cent indicating their support for the tolls, while those least likely to vote "yes" were aged between 25 and 34, with support dropping to 13 per cent in this group.

Women were more likely to vote "no" than men - 68 per cent compared to 61 per cent - and 25 per cent of men intend to vote "yes", compared with only 15 per cent of women.

Under the council’s plans, motorists would pay 2 a day to cross either the outer cordon between 7am and 10am or the inner cordon between 7am and 6pm from Monday to Friday.

While only 19 per cent said they would "definitely" vote in favour, 15 per cent said they would "possibly" vote "yes" - a total of 37 per cent who may be in favour. But with another 19 per cent of those surveyed saying they were unsure of how they would vote if the outer cordon was dropped, the results suggest the council would stand a much better chance of winning the vote on just an inner cordon.

When asked if there is a congestion problem in Edinburgh, 65 per cent of those polled said there definitely was, another 17 per cent said there was "possibly" a problem. Only 15 per cent said no, and three per cent were unsure.

Scottish Opinion also asked people to rate parking facilities in the city. The results show 27 per cent believe parking is "very poor" and another 29 per cent would rate it as "poor". Only nine per cent of those polled said it was "good" or "very good".

Shortly before the survey was carried out, the council acknowledged parking regulations may have been "too tough" on motorists and announced a review. A week later, city transport leader Andrew Burns pledged an independent watchdog would be appointed to monitor the impact of the tolls and the scheme would be scrapped after two years if it was shown not to be working.

However, today’s poll results would suggest such concessions may have come too late.

Supporters of road tolls have long argued Labour’s decision to hold a referendum before tolls were introduced was a high-risk strategy. The experience from congestion charging schemes elsewhere in the world has been that the majority of residents oppose tolls before they are introduced. In the Norwegian city of Trondheim, 72 per cent of people were against tolls before they were brought in, but this dropped to 36 per cent after five years.

Next year, a referendum is due to be held in Stockholm - but only after the tolls have been on trial in the Swedish capital for 13 months.

London Mayor Ken Livingstone, who introduced a 5 toll in a central charging zone in February 2003, recently warned a "no" vote in Edinburgh could "kill off" government plans for a national road-pricing scheme.

City leaders were criticised for choosing to delay the tolls referendum until after the 2003 local authority elections. But the results showed how close Labour came to losing control of the council - winning the crucial Fountainbridge ward by only nine votes.

Whether they still have a chance of winning the congestion charging vote won’t be known for certain until the referendum results are announced on February 22.