Why festive shopping after 12:30 today equals trouble

FOR anyone who has spent the past week or so sending their blood pressure soaring as they fight their way through the crowds of Christmas shoppers - searching frantically for that one special gift - there is some terrible news: it has been proved mathematically that come 12:30pm today any remaining fun and good cheer they may have felt will disappear.

Dr Tony Mann, the head of mathematics at Greenwich University, London, through the detailed study of the Christmas shopping phenomenon, has now pinpointed the exact moment when any sense of enjoyment is overtaken by the myriad of demands and churning sense of helplessness.

‘Black Saturday’ is the portentous term the academic has coined for it, but the bottom line is that, according to his theory, 12:30 today is as good as everybody is going to feel for the next 22 days.

He has come to this dismal conclusion by feeding a series of data and equations into a computer, from which he has produced a graph.

This shows that shoppers’ festive spirit is inversely proportional to the stress that they experience, and that the critical point where the two cross over is early tomorrow afternoon.

The academic explained his theory: "The graph shows that the shopper’s enthusiasm for buying presents starts off at a high level, representing the initial excitement and desire to find the perfect present.

"But like any other enthusiasm, it gradually declines over time and is compounded by the stress of shopping on the high street," said Dr Mann.

"As various external factors kick in, however, and the approaching deadline nears, stress rises.

"Eventually, stress overtakes enthusiasm and Christmas shopping becomes a chore rather than a pleasure," Dr Mann went on. "By Christmas Day, the enthusiasm for buying presents hits zero."

Despite such Scrooge-like sentiments, Dr Mann’s theories have their supporters.

Cary Cooper, a professor of organisational psychology and health with Lancaster University Management School, said: "I actually don’t think anyone needs a formula to know that Christmas becomes completely stressful at a specific point, but I think Dr Mann is absolutely accurate.

"The first weekend of December, for most people psychologically, is the start of Christmas. Nowadays, two out of three families are working families, and we have the longest working hours in the EU and the second longest behind the US in the world.

"What you get is both mum and dad coming home from work during the busiest part of the year, absolutely exhausted and not wanting to go out shopping, but feeling obliged to.

"On top of this, they have all the other Christmas tasks: the cards, the parties, the visiting, which in most people’s minds is fun; the reality is that they are burned out at the beginning of the month and they don’t want anything to do with it.

"It’s the classic Christmas syndrome. The thing that people are really looking forward to is the holiday that they get over Christmas.

"Unfortunately, they tend to edit or forget all the stress that they suffer in the run-up to this holiday, and it is the first shopping weekend in December where it comes back to them, the reality of Christmas."

However, Professor Paul Freathy, the director of the Institute of Retail Studies at the University of Stirling, disagrees: "Well, the shopping period does start this weekend, so Dr Mann is on safe ground in saying that stress levels will rise," he said.

"But to put a time on it is just nonsense," he claimed. "The idea that at 12:28pm and 12:29pm you will feel fine, then suddenly everything is awful, it doesn’t work.

"A lot of the stress has been relieved by the likes of internet shopping, and there’s been a major resurgence in catalogue shopping. Companies are sending these out earlier.

"I received the first one in June this year, so the message is going out: shop early for Christmas," he added. "Also, the actual individual shopping experience is so varied.

"I was in Edinburgh last weekend, and it was a cold, crisp day, the ferris wheel was lit up and I just thought how wonderful it looked. Many shopping centres are making the shopping experience a lot more enjoyable; setting up events, bringing Santa in, having something for the children to do while the parents buy presents."

Despite Dr Mann’s gloomy maths, few people will balk at joining the crowds thronging the high street.

It would seem that the festive stress is just as much a tradition as turkey and Christmas trees.