Prof John Curtice: Tories face tough task to '˜win big'

The Conservatives could face a more difficult task than thought in 'winning really big' in the snap general election called by Theresa May, a prominent election expert has warned.

John Curtice says the Tories need 10 point lead for a large majority. Picture: Robert Perry

Professor John Curtice suggested the Prime Minister would need a lead greater than ten points to get the large government majority she wants.

Mrs May, who has a fragile working majority of just 17 in the Commons, said she wants “unity” at Westminster as talks on Brexit begin in earnest with the European Union.

The Tories currently lead Labour by an average of 17 points in opinion polls, which Prof Curtice acknowledged would be enough to secure a landslide on 8 June. But he said that with the SNP expected to win the majority of Scottish seats, putting the nation “out of the game” in terms of forming a government, it has become a lot harder to win a large Commons majority.

He said: “An awful lot of Labour seats are astonishingly safe and therefore even with a 15-point lead, well yes I think Theresa May at that point will get past the 100 majority mark.

“But let’s just imagine that the lead falls back to seven, back in 2015, a seven-point lead over Labour was only enough to get a majority of 12 and that was only achieved by winning a lot of seats off the Liberal Democrats.”