Forty people a day could die from swine flu by next month

The stark assessment came as a 19-year-old man was confirmed yesterday as the first person in London to die after contracting swine flu, taking the UK death toll to four.

The teenager, who had underlying health problem, tested positive for the virus following his death on Wednesday. London, a "swine flu hot spot", is the second-worst affected area in the UK. West Midlands is the worst hit, with Scotland third.

The youth's death came as UK Health Secretary Andy Burnham warned Britain could have more than 100,000 new cases a day by the end of next month.

There are 7,447 confirmed cases of swine flu in the UK. Four patients have died, all of whom had underlying health problems. If the death toll stays at that level (roughly one in 2,500), the disease could kill about 40 people a day by September.

The Scottish Government has said 10,000 people a day north of the Border were expected to contract the virus by next month.

A Scottish Government spokesman said: "It is too early at this stage to know how the pandemic will progress over the coming months; therefore any estimates as to the number of infections or deaths can only be conjectural.

"For example, it is entirely possible that during the summer transmission rates may fall and we will not continue to see the significant rises in cases each week that has been the case in the hot spots in the UK so far."

Figures released yesterday show Scotland has 64 new cases of influenza A (H1N1), taking the total of confirmed cases to 1,325. Of the 64 newly confirmed cases, 53 were in the Greater Glasgow and Clyde health board area, five in Tayside, two in Lanarkshire, two in Ayrshire and Argyll, and one each in Grampian and Highland; 61 were not travel-related.

The Scottish Government, in line with Westminster, is abandoning its daily log of exact numbers who have contracted the disease, and from next week will issue a weekly update giving the percentage infected per 100,000 of the population.

It emerged yesterday that the Arbroath FC midfielder Robert Urquhart had been diagnosed with swine flu after returning from a holiday in Ibiza.

Manager John McGlashan said: "Robert was due to start pre-season training last Thursday, but he called me to say he was feeling under the weather, and I told him just to stay at home. After visiting the doctor on Friday, it was confirmed he had swine flu, which he thinks he caught on the flight back home."

The Westminster government has signed contracts with GSK and Baxter for the supply of 130 million doses of swine flu vaccine – enough for the entire population. The first delivery is expected next month, and 60 million doses should be delivered by the end of the year. T

Health workers and at-risk groups, such as those with heart disease, diabetes or asthma, and children under five, are likely to get the vaccine first.

Eight pupils from Sevenoaks School in Kent, all between 16 and 18, have been treated for swine flu in hospital in Romania