EU referendum poll: Celtic nations set to vote to remain

Voters in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are likely to choose to remain in the European Union, if the latest opinion polls are correct.

Remain is ahead in when all polls are aggregated
Remain is ahead in when all polls are aggregated

With surveys in London also suggesting strong support for staying in the EU, the result of the referendum on June 23 could hang on the verdict of voters across the rest of England.

The latest opinion poll of the electorate in Scotland, conducted by ICM, puts Remain on 54%, Leave on 32% and Don’t Know on 14%.

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Every poll in Scotland so far this year has put Remain ahead of Leave.

In Wales the race looks like being a lot closer. The latest opinion poll puts Remain on 40%, just one percentage point ahead of Leave on 39%, while Don’t Know is on 22%. The survey was conducted by YouGov.

In the six Welsh polls published so far this year, Remain has been in front in four while Leave has been ahead in two. The three most recent polls have all shown Remain with a small lead.

Very few polls have been published in Northern Ireland. But the most recent, by Ipsos Mori, suggested 44% of voters thought the UK would be weaker outside the EU, while 20% said the country would be stronger. Over a third - 36% - were undecided.

A slightly older poll, carried out by market research firm Millward Brown, put Remain on 55%, Leave on 23% and Don’t Know on 22%.

In London, voters appear to be backing Remain in large numbers. The latest poll, published by Opinium, puts Remain on 51%, Leave on 34% and Don’t Know on 15%.

No polls have been published this year that include the views only of voters in England.

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Recent UK-wide polls suggest that English voters could tip the overall result one way or the other, however.

The latest phone poll, by Survation, puts Remain on 44% and Leave on 38%, with Don’t Know on 18%. But the latest online poll, by BMG, puts Leave on 45%, Remain on 44% and Don’t Know on 12%.

Former SNP leader Alex Salmond has suggested that if Scotland votes Remain but the UK ends up exiting the EU thanks to people in England voting Leave, another referendum on Scottish independence could follow.

A poll of polls by the Press Association, which uses a rolling seven-day average of all published polls, puts Remain on 46%, Leave on 42% and Don’t Know on 12%.