Beyond budget: Libya could cost Britain £1.75bn

THE true cost of Britain’s military involvement in Libya could be nearly seven times what the government has estimated, according to a new study which warns the overall bill could spiral to £1.75 billion.

The research by a leading defence analyst suggests the government has significantly underestimated the financial strain of Operation Ellamy, particularly given the increasing involvement of the Royal Air Force in the north African country.

In June, Defence Secretary Dr Liam Fox told MPs that a six-month involvement in the Nato-led mission to protect Libyan civilians would cost some £260m. He said the day-to-day operational costs, which will be met by the Treasury, could amount to £120m, with the cost of replenishing the munitions deployed adding up to around £140m.

However, Francis Tusa, editor of the Defence Analysis, a monthly newsletter, believes the total costs for the operation, now in its seventh month, will be considerably higher.

His study, which collated information released in response to parliamentary questions along with data from the RAF, gives two estimates far higher than the total suggested by Dr Fox – between £1.38bn and £1.58bn using one method, and between £850m and £1.75bn using another model.

Mr Tusa told The Scotsman that the British operation in Libya is “beyond anything that was ever remotely envisaged and beyond budget”.

At a time when the Ministry of Defence and other government departments have been tasked with making deep spending cuts, he criticised the ministers for presuming the conflict would “last for a week or so” instead of several months.

“How the government can arrive at a total of £260m is simply impossible,” he said. “Until the MoD start producing hard data, they are simply saying, ‘Trust me’, which I’m afraid you can’t. The figures in my analysis have not been conjured up out of thin air, they are based entirely on data the MoD have provided to the House of Commons, which means they have to provide a very, very strong reason why they are not accurate.

“This operation is beyond the defence guidelines and it is beyond anything that was ever remotely envisaged and it’s beyond budget. George Osborne said [in March] it would cost in the tens of millions rather than hundreds of millions. Everyone assumed it would take a week or so, not several months. As it’s gone on, and on, and on, there’s been a degree of political embarrassment, and all of the real costs won’t be met out of the central reserve.”

Since the intervention began in March, Britain has flown more than 1,600 combat missions over Libya, which is around one-fifth of the total Nato deployment, and destroyed or damaged about 900 targets. The UK has deployed 32 aircraft, warships, a helicopter carrier, a submarine and anti-mine vessels.

Airstrikes against forces loyal to Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi have continued in abundance in recent weeks, despite the fact the Libyan leader’s regime has collapsed. The use of expensive precision weapons in an attempt to minimise civilian casualties has also driven up the overall bill.

The Defence Analysis study does not take into account the cost of the most recent sorties, which have seen several RAF Tornados flying to Libya from the UK, nor does it include start-up costs for the mission when the MoD hired fleets of haulage trucks and trailers to transport equipment to the Gioia del Colle military base in Italy.

Mr Tusa, a veteran defence journalist for more than two decades, added: “I wonder why MoD are so quick to say we shouldn’t worry about it and it’s under control when it isn’t under control.

“Bear in mind that within the last month, we’ve had the announcement of the first tranche of redundancies. One of the reasons those redundancies have been announced is to try and make the books balance.

“You can’t do it by cutting equipment programmes, you can’t do it by stopping our operational capability because we’d end up like Belgium. The only way you can make the books balance is by cutting personnel.”

Clive Fairweather, former deputy commander of the SAS, said many costs for the Libyan operation would never appear on balance sheets, given they involve the likes of special forces.

He said: “The MoD will not tell lies, but they’ll always try to present a best-case scenario, and that for the Libyan operation is to make it appear as cheap as possible.

“The overall cost depends on how you add up the figures, but it’s been a very expensive air operation, and the costs include not only the aircraft, but pilots, fuel, landing costs, support crews, and their accommodation.”

He added: “There are also costs which we will not be told about, such as surveillance aircraft and special forces. The only difference between this and Afghanistan is we don’t have a major ground force, but in every other way it’s just as, if not more, costly.”

Responding to Mr Tusa’s research, Labour called for a government breakdown of the Libyan operation, with Jim Murphy, the shadow defence secretary, emphasising that it was “vital we have transparency”.

He said: “Labour supported the conflict in Libya … £1bn is much higher than the initial estimate and if it is correct we will want to see detailed breakdowns. We will also want to know why Danny Alexander was so wrong when he said the conflict would cost ‘hundreds of millions’.”

The MP for East Renfrewshire added: “At a time when redundancies are being made and cuts to equipment are biting, it is important that the core defence budget is protected as much as possible.

Replenishments of munitions used in Libya, therefore, must come out of the Treasury reserve.”

A spokesman for the MoD said: “We currently estimate that the net additional cost of Operation Ellamy is in the region of £110m from the start of the operations in mid-March to mid-September. In addition, we estimate the cost of replenishing munitions expended over this period may be up to £130m.

“These figures are slightly lower than those announced by the secretary of state to Parliament in June [£120m and £140m respectively] but are not the final figures.”