Tory victory SNP's best hope for independence

Tory leader David Cameron rallies the party faithful in Brighton yesterday after a poll put the Conservatives only two points ahead of Labour. Mr Cameron admitted his party faced a "real fight" and that the election would be "close", but ended his speech by saying: "Get out there and win it for Britain."

In the YouGov survey, 31 per cent of Scots said they would be more likely to vote for independence if the Conservatives took power at Westminster.

Last week, Mr Salmond unveiled a revised SNP independence strategy but said he would not publish his referendum bill until after the "febrile atmosphere" of the UK general election had abated. His delaying tactics were derided by opposition politicians, but they appear to have been vindicated by today's poll suggesting his cause would be helped greatly by a Conservative election victory.

Although a Tory government has long been seen as the most likely breeding ground for independence, the survey confirms just how many Scots would be swayed towards separatism by one.

While the YouGov poll of 1,000 Scots shows an overall drop in support for independence, it offers some consolation to Mr Salmond in the wake of poor opinion poll results yesterday. These revealed a slump in support for the SNP, with the party falling 17 percentage points behind Labour in voting intentions for the general election.

In The Scotsman's poll, only 2 per cent said they would be less likely to vote for independence should David Cameron become prime minister. Some 57 per cent said their views would be unchanged either way, while 11 per cent said they did not know if their vote would change.

Labour supporters were most likely to support independence in the event of a Tory victory at Westminster, with 41 per cent taking that view, compared with 39 per cent of Liberal Democrat voters, 40 per cent of SNP supporters and 4 per cent of Tories.

The Holyrood opposition parties have always said they would block SNP plans to hold a referendum on independence, but they could find themselves fighting a battle against a profoundly different public-opinion landscape in the wake of the general election.

Tory support in Scotland has been weak since the premiership of Margaret Thatcher. Scotland currently has only one Conservative MP and the number of Scots in any Westminster government led by Mr Cameron is likely to be very low.

Advocates of independence would seize on this to claim a Tory government in London had no mandate to rule in Scotland.

SNP deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon was bullish about the poll, restating her party's confidence the case for independence would be successful in a referendum.

"The poll actually shows a similar level of support for this independence question as the last YouGov poll in November, but, of course, it has been overtaken by events with the publication of the draft referendum bill last week and its proposed questions on independence and more powers," she said.

"The best way to advance the cause of Scottish democracy will be to elect SNP MPs as champions of Scotland's interests at the general election, regardless of whether the next UK government is Tory or Labour.

"We already know that, if they won, the Tories would count all of the votes cast for Labour and the Lib Dems in Scotland as part of an anti-independence and anti-democratic bloc."

However, The Scotsman's poll results were hailed by an apparently rejuvenated Labour Party, further bolstered by news that the Scottish electorate seemed to back the UK government's stance on public-sector cuts.

In the poll, 46 per cent said they believed the UK government should not cut spending too soon after an election, amid fears such a move could plunge the country back into recession. In comparison, 38 per cent backed the Tory position that cuts should come sooner rather than later to attack the UK's massive deficit.

Labour MP for Ochil and South Perthshire Gordon Banks said the results showed most Scots did not want to see a Conservative government at Westminster.

"David Cameron stumbles on his policies every time he tries to describe one. He was wrong on the recession and now he is wrong on the recovery," he said.

He went on: "Scots are taking a long, hard look at the SNP and the Tories – and not liking what they see. There is everything to play for in the general election and I believe Labour will win.

"If Alex Salmond continues to actively campaign for Labour to lose, then Scots will punish him harshly. The figures reflect the strength of dislike for the Tories in Scotland and the support of Labour policies."

Meanwhile, Scottish Liberal Democrats' chief whip Mike Rumbles said the poll showed the Conservatives were not "pulling the wool over Scottish voters' eyes".

He added: "It's a pretty damning verdict about what Scots think of the Tories."

Elsewhere in the poll, there was mixed news for the SNP.

Although the sample indicated overall backing for independence had dropped by two percentage points to 27 per cent since November, it also showed a similar drop in support for a No vote in any independence referendum – it was down by two points to 55 per cent – and an increase in the number of "don't knows".

Yesterday, a Scotland on Sunday poll, also carried out by YouGov, revealed Mr Salmond's personal rating had dipped, with only 36 per cent of Scots now believing he was doing a good job, against the 38 per cent who thought he was not.

That news will be compounded by the latest survey, which indicates the Scottish electorate puts the SNP behind its major rivals when judging which parties they trust to handle major devolved policy issues.

Only 12 per cent of voters indicated they thought the Nationalists would handle the health service brief best, behind Labour on 37 per cent and the Tories on 14 per cent.

On education, the SNP was preferred by 13 per cent of Scots, compared with 34 per cent for Labour and 15 per cent for the Conservatives.

And, when asked about law and order, 11 per cent believed the SNP was the best party, a long way short of the 26 per cent for the Tories and 25 per cent for Labour.

In the wake of the poll, the Tories, too, restated their confidence, even though a separate YouGov survey on UK voting intentions showed the once dominant Conservative opinion poll lead slashed to only two points.

Shadow Scottish secretary David Mundell said the results of The Scotsman poll showed Scotland had again rejected the notion of independence. "It is more proof that Alex Salmond should ditch his separation plans and get on with what he was elected to do," he said, adding: "The Conservative party is committed to doing everything in our power to keep Scotland as part of Britain."