Tories spark new surge for independence

• David Cameron's vision for Britain has thus far left the Scottish voter unimpressed Photograph: PA/Getty Images

The poll findings suggest that the drastic cuts package proposed by the coalition is politically unpopular, and as the poll was largely taken before the details were announced last week, it is thought the government will face a growing backlash.

While more people still oppose independence than are in favour, the YouGov survey finds that backing for separation has gone up from 28 per cent to 34 per cent since May's general election.

At the same time, those who say they would oppose the forming of an independent country have dropped from 58 per cent to 50 per cent, according to YouGov.

Last week, David Cameron and George Osborne slashed defence spending in Scotland, closed at least one Scottish RAF base, and then cut the Scottish Government's block grant by 10 per cent over four years.

With separate polls taken since last week suggesting that the cuts programme is more unpopular north of the border than anywhere else in the UK, the SNP last night claimed that more Scots were turning to independence as a way out.

However, UK government ministers insisted that the Scottish Government had received a fair deal and told them they should now get on with setting out their own plans on spending.

Today's poll shows that support for independence is back at levels not seen since the near-collapse of Royal Bank of Scotland and HBoS in the autumn of 2008. The financial crisis was widely seen by opponents of independence to have destroyed the SNP's hopes of persuading Scots that they would be better off going it alone.

However, the Nationalists are now hoping to capitalise on the widespread dismay over the public sector cuts by arguing that more powers and independence would slow down the pace of the reductions and improve growth.

The poll findings come with the Chancellor facing further pressure over his 81 billion cuts package, with GDP figures expected to show this week that the UK grew by just 0.4 per cent between June and September, down from 1.2 per cent in the previous quarter.

The slowdown in growth comes with Osborne's "fiscal consolidation" yet to begin, and with the rise in VAT to 20 per cent in the New Year expected to further reduce growth figures.

Economists said yesterday that Britain is not yet in danger of falling into a "double-dip" recession, but that the first quarter of 2011 could see negative growth.

In a podcast on the No 10 website today, the Prime Minister will argue that its cuts programme as outlined last week was "fair", with the richest in society shouldering the greatest burden.

However, he acknowledges fears about the scale of the cutbacks, saying the country faces a "hard road". He adds: "I don't underestimate how difficult this will be."

But separate polling evidence, in addition to the Scotland on Sunday/YouGov poll, suggests that, in Scotland, Cameron's claims are falling on deaf ears.

In a UK-wide ComRes poll asking voters whether they thought the cuts went too far, 39 per cent of people agreed, but in Scotland the figure was 53 per cent – the highest anywhere in Britain.

And in a YouGov poll asking whether the cuts were being undertaken fairly or unfairly, 47 per cent of people across the UK said they were unfair, but in Scotland the figure was 60 per cent, again the highest

figure across the country.

The SNP welcomed the Scotland on Sunday poll last night. Deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon said: "This is an extremely encouraging poll with support for independence rising by six points and opposition declining by eight points."

She added: "Last week we discovered that the UK government is slashing Scotland's budget by 1.3bn next year alone with savage cuts planned for years to come. More and more people living in Scotland are realising that we can achieve much more as a nation if we have the same powers are other countries."

But Scottish Secretary Michael Moore insisted last night the cuts had been fairly distributed and that Scottish ministers should concentrate on formalising their own budget.

Finance Secretary John Swinney must present detailed plans by the middle of next month on how he intends to spend Scotland's grant.

Moore said: "The UK government has shown leadership by spelling out our four-year plan to cut the record peacetime deficit that we have inherited. The Scottish Government should now produce a Scottish spending review of its own." He added: "Families, businesses and the markets need clarity in order to plan for their future. "

John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said of the poll findings: "This gives the SNP some hope that whatever damage was done by the financial crisis to the cause of independence may have been restored. But the SNP's main hope, that four years of wonderful government would result in an increase in support for independence is still to happen.".