SNP set to defeat Scottish Labour at next poll

THE SNP is on course to become the largest party in Scotland in the next general election, taking almost half the seats if the European result was repeated.

In the European election result, the Nationalists were 8 percentage points ahead of Labour, who were defeated north of the Border in a nationwide election for only the second time since 1955.

If replicated in a general election, it would mean that the SNP would win 28 of Scotland's of 59 Westminster seats, soaring past Alex Salmond's target of 20.

In the same calculation, Labour would win a mere 15 seats, a drop of 26.

The Nationalists came top in 22 of the 32 council areas right across the country, including some Labour strongholds like Falkirk and South Lanarkshire.

Despite this, the SNP ended up with the same number of MEPs as Labour with two each. The other two places were taken by Struan Stevenson for the Conservatives and George Lyon for the Liberal Democrats.

Nevertheless Labour's Scottish leaders were trying to explain why the party had won just 21 per cent of the popular vote in Scotland.

Labour came top in just three of the council areas, but one of the party's spokesmen attempted to spin that it had been a "bad result" for the SNP for not breaking 30 per cent and winning three seats.

Embarrassingly, Labour came third in East Renfrewshire, the constituency of Jim Murphy, the Scottish Secretary, and only just managed to see off the Tories and hold on to second place in East Lothian, the area represented by Iain Gray, the party's leader in the Scottish Parliament.

Mr Murphy claimed Labour voters had stayed at home and said he believed supporters would come out again in a general election.

He pointed to the low voter turn-out of just 28.6 per cent across Scotland and said it proved that many disillusioned Labour voters had decided not to go to the polls.

However, David Martin, who along with Catherine Stihler, managed to be elected as a Labour MEP, said the party had done very well to have two MEPs returned in Scotland.

He said they had faced "a perfect storm" of the MPs' expenses scandal, recession and party divisions.

However, the SNP argued that the result was a positive one in favour of their Scottish Government.

They pointed out that, across the UK, the SNP is the only party to make a significant advance at the expense of Labour, with a ten point surge since the last European election.

And the swing from Labour – at nearly 8 points to the SNP – was the biggest anywhere in the UK, and double the swing from Labour to the Tories UK-wide.

First Minister Alex Salmond said: "In the contest between two governments, the SNP in Scotland and Labour at Westminster, the people of Scotland have delivered a massive vote of confidence in the SNP and a massive rejection of Labour."

Even though they polled just 16.8 per cent of the vote, the Tories declared the result proved they "are back in Scotland".

They argued the European election results showed they would win seats like East Renfrewshire; Dumfries and Galloway; Dumfriesshire; Clydesdale and Tweeddale; Edinburgh South; Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk; and West Aberdeen and Kincardine, as well as having a tilt at Alistair Darling's seat in Edinburgh South West.

"All over Scotland we are challenging for seats, and all over Scotland people are realising that the only way of getting rid of this tired and failing Labour government is to vote for the Conservatives," said Scottish Tory leader Annabel Goldie.

Meanwhile, new Liberal Democrat MEP George Lyon declared his party had confounded the sceptics by "comfortably" holding on to its Scottish European Parliament seat.

However, the party polled just 11.5 per cent of the vote, which would see it losing at least two of its 11 seats in a Westminster election.

However, Scottish Lib Dem spokesman Alistair Carmichael said: "The people of Scotland are walking away from Labour in their droves."

It was also a disappointing night for the smaller parties who had been hoping to make more progress north of the Border. The Greens polled 7.3 per cent and came third in Glasgow, but at one point thought they might win a seat in Scotland.

But veteran Green MSP Robin Harper said: "We have made progress. In a Holyrood election this result would help us get back to our pre-2007 level of MSPs and certainly we would double our two representatives from Edinburgh and Glasgow."

The three far-left parties also made little impression, polling 3.8 per cent between them.

But Scottish Socialist Party leader Colin Fox said: "At least the popular vote in Scotland is going to the left of Labour. We are on a rebuilding process and we got what I expected."

Labour vote crashes to 15%, as more people turn to fringe parties

LABOUR'S support hit a historic low in the European election, falling to only 15 per cent across the UK.

The party slumped into third place behind the Conservatives and Ukip, and saw its number of MEPs drop to 13 from 18.

Among the indignities suffered by Labour was coming second to the Conservatives in Wales – the first time they had lost there since 1918.

In Cornwall, Labour came fifth, behind even the Party of Cornwall.

Labour's deputy leader Harriet Harman conceded there had been a "big fall" in the Labour vote.

She claimed the party had been hit much harder than the other parties by public anger over MPs' expenses.

"It was a dismal result," Ms Harman conceded. "We have to understand the concerns that people are expressing and address them."

The Conservatives topped the UK-wide poll, with 27.7 per cent of the vote, and won 25 seats, up one from 2004.

However, critics pointed out the result did not indicate a popular wave of support for a party that is hoping to sweep to power in the next general election.

Instead, many voters appeared to choose the fringe parties, including the Greens, who kept their two MEPs in the south-east of England and London, and saw their support rise by 2.4 percentage points.

But Tory leader David Cameron said he was "delighted" with the result.

"We topped the poll, we increased our share of the vote, increased our number of MEPs, we won in almost every part of the country and had some staggering results, like topping the poll in Wales," he said.

The Liberal Democrats gained a seat, despite seeing their support fall by 1.2 points to 13.7 per cent.

Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg said: "We held our own – we actually added an MEP.

"Would I have liked to have done even better? Yes, of course, but I think, given the very volatile nature of the elections, it was a solid result."

The overall turnout was one of the lowest in British political history, with just over 30 per cent of the electorate bothering to vote, despite having English council elections and the European poll on the same day.

John Curtice: Salmond's smile celebrates 'credibility' victory

THE Euro-election battle in Scotland was never a serious battle for seats. It was always highly likely Labour and the SNP would emerge with two seats each, while the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats would have one apiece. The only change this represents from 2004 is that the Conservatives lost a seat, following the reduction in Scotland's representation from seven seats to six – though if that seat had still been in existence this time it would have gone to the SNP. What the battle was really about was credibility – the credibility of being able to claim to be the leading party in Scotland. Labour wanted to come first to demonstrate that its defeat in 2007 was a temporary aberration and it was on course to regain power in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election. The SNP wanted to come first to demonstrate that the honeymoon being enjoyed by the SNP Scottish Government was still not over.

The battle was convincingly won by the SNP. The party emerged no fewer than eight points ahead of Labour, a far bigger margin than the one- to two-point lead it secured in 2007. It was the first time that the SNP had come first in a European contest. Meanwhile, at a little under 21 per cent of the vote, Labour's performance was its worst in a nationwide contest since it started fighting elections in 1918.

Calamitous though the outcome was, there probably was little the Labour Party north of the Border could have done to avoid such a fate. At nearly six points, the decline in its vote share was little different from the seven-point drop the party suffered in England. This suggests the causes of Labour's decline on both sides of the border were much the same. In all probability, they include dissatisfaction with the way Gordon Brown has responded to the expenses scandal.

However, while the result was a clear success for the SNP, its performance was far from spectacular. True, its vote was as much as nine points above what it achieved in 2004, but that is more a reflection of how badly it did five years ago.

At 29 per cent, the SNP's share was a little less than the 31 per cent of the list vote the party won in 2007. It was below, too, the 33 per cent it won in the 2004 European election. The result is better regarded as an affirmation of the SNP's existing level of popularity than as an indication of an advance.

For the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, the result was disappointing. At a little below 17 per cent, the Conservatives' support was down a point on 2004. The Lib Dem vote was down too.

Little wonder only Alex Salmond was smiling yesterday.

• John Curtice is professor of politics, Strathclyde University