SNP hit by big slump in support

ALEX Salmond's support is slumping ahead of the UK general election and he faces being defeated at Holyrood in just over a year's time, according to a major new poll published by Scotland on Sunday.

The SNP has fallen a full 17 percentage points behind Labour on Scottish voting intentions for the Westminster election and is now just a single point ahead of the Conservatives.

And the party is five points behind Labour on voting intentions for the Holyrood constituency vote, dropping below 30 per cent for the first time in its three years in power.

Analysts forecast that if the voting intentions are carried through to the next Scottish parliamentary elections in May next year, Labour will be propelled back to power.

The YouGov poll of 1,000 Scots, taken after a flurry of bad publicity for the SNP government in recent weeks, suggests that the party has lost around 4 per cent of its vote since the turn of the year.

Party strategists blamed the fall last night on the rough patch and are hoping it can now rebound in time for the Westminster election, expected in early May.

But the poll will give further confidence to the party's three main political opponents, which all believe there are several seats across Scotland where the SNP is vulnerable.

In a further blow to Salmond, the YouGov survey also found that the First Minister now has a negative popularity rating, with the 36 per cent of Scots who believe he is doing a good job outnumbered by the 38 per cent who say he is doing badly.

By contrast, despite being plagued by claims that he bullied Downing Street staff, Gordon Brown is seen to be doing a good job – 43 per cent to 35 per cent.

Meanwhile, David Cameron, the most likely next prime minister, has the most negative rating of all the major leaders, with 28 per cent of Scots saying he is doing a good job, as opposed to 33 per cent who say he is doing badly.

But the most notable finding of the poll is the slide of the SNP, with the party seemingly paying the penalty for a gruelling few weeks for Salmond and his deputy, Nicola Sturgeon.

The two most senior figures in the party were embroiled in a row this month over auctioning off lunches at the Scottish Parliament restaurant to raise funds for the party.

Sturgeon also had to apologise last week after it emerged she had written a letter in support of a convicted fraudster, asking that he be spared jail. The government has also had to backtrack recently on manifesto pledges, such as cutting class sizes in Scotland's schools and providing a Glasgow airport rail link.

The poll reveals that the SNP is down four points on Westminster voting intentions, compared with the same YouGov poll at the beginning of January. Labour has 38 per cent, the SNP has 21 per cent, the Conservatives have 20 per cent, while the Lib Dems have 15 per cent.

At Holyrood, the SNP is down by the same amount based against a comparable YouGov poll in November. On the constituency vote, Labour has 33 per cent, the SNP has 28 per cent, while the Tories and the Lib Dems are locked on 16 per cent.

The detailed polling found that the SNP is having particular problems with younger voters. On Westminster voting intentions, only 15 per cent of 18- to 34-year-olds said they were backing the Nationalists, well down on their overall figure of 21 per cent.

The SNP Westminster leader, Angus Robertson, MP, said: "The SNP have stood up to sustained attack of an unprecedented nature, and detailed poll analysis demonstrates that there was a major turning point over the course of last week – with SNP support up six points by the end of the week, compared to last Sunday.

"Labour's orchestrated complaints to the Standards Commissioner were completely dismissed, and Nicola Sturgeon saw off opposition attacks over her constituency issue with a hugely impressive performance in the chamber.

"We have succeeded in stopping the negative issues, regained the initiative with the publication of the draft Referendum Bill and are now on the front foot as we approach the general election campaign.

"It is a sign of the resilience of SNP support that this poll shows a swing from Labour to the SNP since the last general election – with SNP support up three points and Labour down two – and we plan to improve our position further in the coming weeks.

"Almost three years into government, we remain in a strong position despite the difficulties."

Conservative campaign chief David McLetchie said the poll showed the Tories can win more seats in Scotland.

He said: "This poll shows that the Conservatives can win more seats in Scotland and that the SNP are struggling to hold on to theirs. Voters know that the only way to bring about change at the British general election is with the Conservatives. More and more people want to be part of that change."

Labour MP Mark Lazarowicz said: "People know the next election is a clear choice between Labour or the Tories. A vote for the SNP or Liberals would help the Tories in by the back door."

Lib Dem chief whip Mike Rumbles said: "These results show that voters are disappointed by the SNP's broken promises and their obsession with independence over issues that matter, like our children's education. Voters can see that they have failed to deliver anything of substance in this parliament."