Show of force as Uganda votes

UGANDAN president Yoweri Museveni is expected to extend his 25-year grip on power after early returns in the country's election gave the former rebel commander a huge lead over his nearest rival.

While the final result is expected later today, the chairman of Uganda's electoral commission yesterday confirmed that the president had so far secured 71 per cent of the ballots counted while his nearest rival, Kizza Besigye - his former doctor - had around 22 per cent. However, at the time of the announcement, only 17 per cent of the total votes had been counted.

The Electoral Commission chairman, Badru Kiggundu, said that although the count was running smoothly there had been problems during Friday's vote.

"There is no election in the world that is 100 per cent without problems," Kiggundu said. "We are only five years into the current multi-party system."

According to John Mary Odoy, director of the Democracy Monitoring Group, there had been irregularities, including ballots pre-marked for Museveni's party and observers being refused access to polling stations.

Museveni, an ex-rebel commander who, at the head of a guerrilla army, seized power in 1986, once criticised African rulers who clung to power. But he sought another five-year term as a president who has fostered peace, stability and growth.

Museveni, who is vague about his age and is either 66 or 67, has mostly escaped the wrath aimed at other long-serving African leaders.

But his opponent Besigye plans to release his own tally of results and is threatening Egypt-style unrest if the results are out of line with his backers' expectations.

While Besigye insists Uganda is ready for popular revolt, Museveni has said there will be no Egypt-style protests in his country and that he will jail anyone who attempts to foment unrest.

While previous Ugandan election campaigns have been marred by violence against opposition candidates, observers say Museveni allowed his opponents a freer hand to campaign this year, perhaps believing that allowing true competition would help win over voters.

Museveni said he would arrest Besigye if he tries to start protests, while demonstrators would be "bundled" into the courts and jail.

"Revolt? Let him try, let him try, because the hour is here now, and then he will know what it means to revolt," Museveni said at his ranch in Rwakitura.

Besigye, Museveni's field doctor during the guerrilla war that thrust Museveni into power, has said east Africa's third largest economy - which is preparing to start pumping oil next year - is ripe for an uprising similar to that in Egypt.

Besigye has tried and failed to defeat the charismatic leader at the past two elections, though he did erode Museveni's support, leading analysts to expect a closer race.

Yesterday, the Ugandan capital of Kampala was calm and quiet. But armed police and soldiers were on constant patrol, and standing guard in groups at street corners and at major intersections.

However, some observers said the turnout was as low as 30 per cent at many polling stations. Political analysts said the unexpected apathy reflected a conviction that the election would not deliver a democratic result.

"The perception all over the country is that the election was rigged in advance. This low turnout shows that the idea of taking part in an election feels pointless to many people who think the whole thing favours Museveni before they even vote," said Ugandan journalist Timothy Kalyegira.

The European Union's chief observer, Edward Scicluna, said that voting had been generally peaceful except for "flare-ups here and there".

Besigye's Inter-Party Co-operation (IPC) coalition reported cases of soldiers beating and stripping opposition supporters and chasing opposition monitors away from polling stations.

In the northern Gulu district, in the remote east and in the capital, Kampala, voters said that candidates from all parties had offered bribes to secure votes, although Museveni's ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) was accused far more often than other parties.

Political analysts said that after past election campaigns were marred by violence, NRM attempts to sway voters had been more subtle this time to avoid alarming foreign donors and investors.

"In 2006, the election was about a stick. In 2011, it's all about the carrot," said one diplomat.

If Museveni is returned to office it will be a blow for those who have grown weary of a man who once stated that the problem with government in Africa was that leaders did now know when to quit.

The two principal criticisms of his government are that it has created a bloated patronage system and failed to root out corruption. However, during the election campaign, Museveni continued to say that it was he alone who had brought stability to the country and that none of the other candidates was capable of protecting the people.

In a previous election that took place in 2006, Besigye was hit by what were believed to be trumped up terrorism and rape charges. Analysts said the charges may even have earned him votes as he was widely seen as the victim.

Besigye and Museveni were allies during the guerrilla war that brought the president to power in 1986, but they later fell out.

After losing the previous two elections, Besigye went to the courts only to have the judges uphold the president's victories.

Besigye believes that the electoral commission is firmly in the grip of the governing party, but has said that if he loses he will not mount a third legal challenge.

Speaking before the election, he said: "Instead, we'll have to look for other ways. Obviously one of the ways is to get the people to protest.

"How Museveni intends to deal with it is very clear. He has deployed his troops across the country armed to the teeth so he hopes to clearly use force to quell whatever kind of protest comes up.

"We will want to see to what extent the government wants to become criminal by gunning down its citizens who have not committed any offence."