Service pressures grow as population nears a million

New arrivals like Joseph Allen, with mum Esme, are fuelling the increase

A report prepared by the health board and four local authorities said a rapid growth in the number of residents will see a 12-15 per cent rise.

This is nearly three times the rate of the rest of Scotland and has raised concerns as to how agencies will cope with an increasingly elderly demographic.

NHS Lothian said it was ready for the swell, while others pointed out there were positive aspects to a population increase.

The biggest grower will be East Lothian, where the population will rise by a fifth to more than 115,000 in that timeframe.

In West Lothian, which currently has the youngest demographic in the Lothians, the toughest challenge will be the shift in ages. The report predicted the number of pensioners there will increase by almost a third by 2023.

Alex McMahon, acting director of strategic planning for NHS Lothian, said: "Lothian's population is projected to increase at a higher rate than other Scottish health boards through migration and the fact that people are living longer, which is good news.

"This will lead to increased use of our services, but through our extensive planning processes and working closely with our partners, we will ensure that we provide a high-quality health service that is equipped to cope with a growing population.

"We have already pioneered more efficient and innovative ways of working, such as the introduction of telehealth services, and our staff have had significant success in improving service provision through programmes such as Lean in Lothian."

A more immediate concern will be dealing with more people, but with less money.

The controversial NHS Resource Allocation Committee, which decides how much of the national budget NHS Lothian receives, does not take into account a rising population.

Instead, it rates financial need against poverty levels and general health, which disadvantages the health board in Edinburgh against those on the west coast.

Health chiefs estimate they receive around 70 million a year less than they should.

Councillor Lesley Hinds, Labour's health spokeswoman in Edinburgh, said there were positives and negatives from the forecast.

"If you have more people wanting to live here then that is positive," she said.

"It is good for businesses and it means more people are paying council tax, but we've got to be ready for it. More people are going to want to use education facilities and libraries.

"It's not only the number of people but the demographic."People will be living longer, and the longer people live, the more care they require."