Scots baby boom pushes up population

BIRTHS in Scotland are at their highest level for six years, confirming predictions that the population is on the increase after decades of decline.

There were almost 400 more births in the third quarter of 2005 than in the same period of 2004, while the total number of births in the first three quarters shows that this year has been a bumper one for Scottish babies.

Duncan Macniven, the Registrar General for Scotland, said: "Though we should not make too much of quarterly figures like these, it is encouraging."

The annual seasonal decline in deaths between July and September was reflected in the figures for the third quarter of 2005 and at 12,805 they were 266 (2 per cent) below the level at the same time last year. Deaths for the first three quarters combined remain about the same as 2004.

There were over 1,400 (11 per cent) more births than deaths and births outnumbered deaths in ten out of 15 NHS board areas. But, over the first three quarters, there were almost 1,000 more deaths than births. The report also found marriages in the third quarter were down at 12,330 compared with the third quarter of 2004, when there were 12,715.

The increase in the birthrate this year follows predictions made by the Registrar General earlier this week that Scotland's population was due to halt its decline. On the old projections, Scotland's population was to fall below five million before the decade was out - if the trend were to continue, the last Scot would die in 3021.

But the latest forecasts show Scotland's population is to rise, not only this year, but every year until 2019 when it will hit 5.13 million, the same rate as 1995. It is currently estimated at 5.10 million.

However, not all experts are as positive in their outlook. Professor Robert Wright, of the department of economics at Strathclyde University, said the increase in the birthrate was a "small fluctuation" and that Scotland's population would decline over the next four decades. He said: "This is an extremely serious situation ... deaths have exceeded births for the last ten years and that is not going to change.

"The crisis will come at the end of the decade. Jack McConnell realises there is a demographic problem but, for all his Fresh Talent initiatives, seems to lack the political will to get a proper grip on encouraging wide-spread immigration."

Alan Mitchell, the policy officer at the CBI in Scotland, said: "Scotland's demographic issue is a problem for us. We want to see a Scottish economy growing faster than the past 20 years, but that in turn will create a demand for labour."

A Scottish Executive spokeswoman said: "As the First Minister has said on many occasions, our declining and ageing population is the single biggest challenge facing Scotland today. This is why we have developed the Fresh Talent initiative and other schemes to attract jobs and talent to Scotland."