Road toll report warns of rat-runs

ROAD tolls would significantly increase congestion and pollution in north Edinburgh because of "rat-running" to avoid them, experts warned today.

The prediction came in the final report from the council’s transport company on the 1.5 billion package of transport improvements, partly funded by tolls, planned for the city.

It paints a picture of a traffic-clogged Ferry Road with hundreds more drivers each day passing through the north of the city to avoid the city centre toll cordon - unless steps were taken to stop them.

The document also showed that in a "worst-case scenario" drivers might have to be charged to enter the Capital for 35 years - 15 years longer than currently hoped.

But the overall impact of tolls on the city economy is expected to be good, studies carried out for the company suggest.

Transport leaders said they did not believe tolls would be needed any longer than the 20-22 years currently planned for.

Meanwhile, more detail has been published on exactly what could be achieved in terms of improving public transport, if a two-cordon charging scheme was introduced, with "rush-hour only" tolls at the city bypass. Three tram routes would be the most significant benefit.

The report from Transport Initiatives Edinburgh (TIE) has been sent to the Scottish Executive, which has to decide whether to allow tolling plans to proceed.

The council itself has also yet to make a decision on whether to support TIE’s proposals.

The company’s plans involve a huge package of transport improvements combined with two road toll rings - one around the city centre and one at the bypass.

Transport leaders stressed that the overall effect of tolls - and the transport improvements they would pay for - would be significantly less congestion in the city as a whole by 2011 than would be the case without them.

But a pocket of the city - the north - would suffer as a result and expensive "mitigation measures", such as traffic calming, would be needed to offset that.

Because motorists who would normally drive through the city centre on their way elsewhere are expected to try to dodge a central toll, extra traffic is likely to be pushed on to certain routes. The worst affected are expected to be in the north of the city and in particular Ferry Road.

TIE predicted that under its proposals north Edinburgh would see an increase in congestion of about 450 "vehicle hours" per day - or 450 extra hours per day spent by drivers crossing the area. The increased congestion would also mean a ten per cent rise in carbon dioxide emissions and a seven per cent rise in the levels of nitrogen oxides.

The company says it is "reasonably confident" that "appropriate traffic management, possibly combined with relatively small-scale infrastructure changes, could overcome the problem". It points out that the spending package includes 10 million to tackle such difficulties.

But Tory transport spokesman Councillor Allan Jackson, whose Trinity ward includes Ferry Road, said: "The biggest new thing to come out of this is more detail on what I have long suspected to be a major problem - the dramatic increase in congestion in north Edinburgh.

"It looks as if there’s going to be a dramatic rise due to people dodging a city centre toll cordon. People will naturally use Ferry Road, which is already a major problem now. No matter what happens, it’s a disaster for our part of the city."

His anxieties are shared by many people in the area, according to Stewart Fowlie, secretary of the Trinity Community Council.

He said: " The tolls will make it harder to get into the city and increase congestion in this area, which is something that we really don’t want to see."

The TIE report also details a "worst case scenario" for tolls, in which revenue from both charging and tram fares turns out to be significantly less than expected, and the cost of building tram routes turns out to be significantly more.

TIE describes a situation in which toll income is ten per cent less than predicted, tram income is 20 per cent less and tram costs are 25 per cent more. In these circumstances, the company says, achieving the proposed public transport improvements would mean extending tolls to 2041 - 13 years after they were originally supposed to cease.

Alternatively, some 344m of transport improvements would have to be ditched.

By 2011, TIE predicts tolls would mean 17 per cent fewer vehicles on the roads than would have been the case without charging. And in the city centre the decrease would be 50 per cent by 2011, compared with a "no tolls" scenario.

The firm said that although exact figures were not yet available, conclusions emerging from research were that there would be "overall economic benefit".

Motorists would gain through reduced congestion, public transport would get cheaper, and there would probably be a "marginally positive" effect on jobs at a regional level.

The most significant gains are expected to be in areas earmarked for development, such as the Waterfront. The extra jobs and prosperity would be partly the result of the tram links, which are seen as vital to the success of regeneration in such areas.

However, the council said such effects could not yet be quantified because the final report on economic impact is not available.

The key benefits of the two-cordon option proposed by TIE would be tram routes for north, west and south-east Edinburgh.

Other routes under consideration include a southern orbital track and services to Queensferry and Straiton, as well as the long-term possibility of links to Fife, Livingston, Dalkeith and Penicuik.

Some 140m would probably be available to fund some of these routes, although probably not all.

Transport leader Councillor Andrew Burns said: "These proposals would generate a very different set of trips made by different people, and there is obviously increased pressure put on that section of the network [the north]," he said.

"There will be ‘charge avoidance’. But that’s been recognised in the report and it’s just a case of trying to minimise it. It’s really just a small section of Ferry Road that has the problem and the vast majority of routes in that area, for example out towards the A1, would see reduced congestion. The overall impact for the city is also extremely positive."

Liberal Democrat transport spokesman Councillor Fred Mackintosh said: "You look at all these pretty lines on maps and you have to ask how credible it is.

"Do we really trust this administration to deliver this programme, and get its sums right for 20 years, when it couldn’t even deliver a guided busway to the airport?"

He added: "All these improvements [in congestion] are on the assumption they’ve spent all the money. But for the first three years of tolls there will be no trams, just the charges. That’s something which is coming out starkly."

Joseph Quigley, owner of Joseph Quigley Hairdressing on Ferry Road, added: "It [the tolls plan] will certainly lead to heavier traffic. It’s hard enough as it is without more congestion on its away. The air pollution would be a concern too."

The UK’s first scheme to charge motorists to use a city centre road was today set to open in the heart of a historic cathedral city.

Drivers will have to pay 2 to use Durham City’s Sadler Street, a 1000-year-old narrow, winding road which leads to the city’s cathedral and spectacular Norman castle.

The ancient thoroughfare will become Britain’s first toll road since the Transport Act 2000 gave councils the power to introduce charging, and the scheme is expected to lead to scores of others around the country.

The road ahead: Proposed tolls scheme:

Central charging cordon around the World Heritage Site, operating 7am-6.30pm, Monday-Friday.

Outer charging cordon at the city bypass, operating 7am-10am, 4pm-6.30pm, Monday-Friday.

Charge of 2 made no more than once a day for any individual vehicle making one or more journey inbound across either or both cordons.

Exemptions for emergency vehicles, disabled people, buses and motorbikes.

Possible further concessions for taxis and city centre residents.

Resulting transport improvements:

North and west tram lines would be operational by the year 2009 (355 million)

South-east tram operational by 2013 (123m)

Funding for rail schemes in Edinburgh 2008 and 2015 (35m)

Another 140m to fund rail or more trams outside the city boundary (two phases - 40m 2014-2019, 100m 2022-2028)

Orbital bus scheme linking South Gyle and new Edinburgh Royal Infirmary (two phases - 17m 2006-2008, 55m 2015-2017)

City centre environmental improvements 2006-2015 (40m)

Annual boost for public transport running costs (39m per year)

Maintenance of transport network over the life of the project (188m)