Randall Archibold: Mexico struggles with drug war toll

Only a week into the new year, 15 human heads sat outside a gleaming shopping centre on the other side of the lush hills that frame Acapulco's big tourist hotels. Within hours, several bodies turned up in a taxi and elsewhere, bringing the number of victims to 33 in a single weekend, scattered around a side of town few visitors see.

Then two weeks later, the Mexican government announced it had captured the leader of a shadowy criminal organisation believed to be responsible for the mayhem, as well as for the disappearance of 20 men who came to Acapulco last autumn on holiday.

The twin events - the shock of yet another massacre and the government's ability to take down those it believes responsible - define the see-sawing battle for the right to claim victory at a critical juncture in Mexico's war on organised crime.

The increase in violence is indisputable. The government says more than 34,600 have been killed in the four years since president Felipe Caldern took office and threw the federal police and military at the cartels, with last year's toll, 15,237, the heaviest yet.

Mexican and American officials, crediting American training of the military and what they consider to be an increasingly professional federal police force, point out that more than half of the 37 most wanted crime bosses announced last year have been captured or killed. The government also maintains that the last quarter of 2010 showed a decline in the pace of killings.

But the public does not seem to believe it. A poll released on 11 January by Mexico's national statistics institute found that more than 70 per cent of respondents believed the country's security had worsened since 2009. The findings mirrored similar research by pollsters showing that, for the first time in recent years, Mexicans are more worried about safety than the economy, a near reversal from the year before.

"There is a disconnect between what the government thinks it is achieving and what the public perceives as happening," said Denise Dresser, a veteran political analyst in Mexico City. Because Mr Caldern "made the war the centre of gravity of his term, he is now being evaluated on whether he is winning it, and the public perception is he is not winning".

Alarmed at the high death toll, congress summoned Mr Caldern's top police official, Genaro Garcia Luna, to a hearing on Monday to explain the violence. Mr Garcia Luna said a corner was being turned, but legislators, chiefly from opposition parties, did not appear convinced.

Mr Caldern, who has struggled since narrowly winning office in 2006, has found his proposals to revamp local policing and prevent money laundering stalled in congress. At the same time, human rights groups, concerned over unexplained disappearances and deaths, are pressing for civilian trials of military personnel.The coming months may be even more challenging for Mr Caldern because his political opponents may be wary of handing him any victories ahead of the presidential election next year, which is likely to focus on security.