Quarter of Scots will be aged over 65 by the year 2033

• Scotland's ageing population will cost more to look after. Picture: Getty

On the day the Registrar General for Scotland said he expects the number of over-60s to increase by 50 per cent by 2033, academics, politicians and medical leaders highlighted concerns rising life expectancy and a decline in the working-age population could heap intolerable pressure on Scotland's public services in the coming years.

One leading population economist warned that, because Scotland has no substantial tax-raising powers, expecting taxpayers elsewhere in the UK to pay an increasing sum to fund benefits north of the Border was "stupidity".

The population figures come a week after an independent body set up to examine Scottish budget priorities warned that universal benefits such as free concessionary travel for the over-60s, free personal care and free prescriptions, should be reviewed and potentially axed to help Scotland prepare for an incoming public sector budget squeeze that could last for years.

According to the latest projection, which is based on recent population trends, Scotland's demographics are set to alter significantly by 2033, with the country's overall population likely to increase from its current level of 5.19 million to 5.54 million and the number of over 60s growing from 1.17 million to 1.75 million. That rise would continue an upward trend in the country's average age, with the total population of over 60s having steadily risen from its 1999 level of 1.057 million.

At the same time, in the last decade, the number of children below the age of 16 has dropped by eight per cent and the number of people aged over 75 has risen by 14 per cent. Yesterday, the Registrar, Duncan Macniven, confirmed that by 2033, he expects a quarter of all Scots to be beyond the current retirement age of 65.

The scenario led to calls for the Scottish Government to reconsider its decision to expressly rule out the revision of its flagship universal benefits policies, which help many over the age of 60, but have come under fire for offering blanket services to all, regardless of their ability to pay.

And academics warned that consideration of Scotland's ageing population was "critical" in the debate to come over public spending.

Professor Robert Wright of Strathclyde University, who is an expert in population economics, said it was clear the profile of Scotland's population was going to change "dramatically" in the years to come.

He said: "You will have a bigger percentage increase in the people who are 85 and above, often called the frail elderly – a group of people that the state has to invest a lot in, in terms of housing and health.

At the same time, the number of people of labour force age might decline, and they are paying for the whole show. Those in work pay for those not in work, full stop.

"We are in a situation in which the numbers in work are going down and the number expecting benefits is going up. You can see the tension in the system. All the politicians know the problem, but it is a tough one, because you have to talk about immigration, cutbacks in the standard of living for older people – it is political suicide, but it has to be addressed.

"In places like Germany they are trying to address it, but in Scotland we tend to ignore it and hope the English taxpayer is going to pay for the Scottish ageing population. To believe the English taxpayer is going to pay our pensions indefinitely is just stupidity."

His concern was echoed by Professor Martin Chalkley of Dundee University, who specialises in the economy of health.

He said: "Healthcare use increases with age, so if you get an ageing population, that is going to have implications for healthcare usage – there is no doubt about that. Where you have a bigger proportion of a dependent population, fewer proportion of people working, your tax base is smaller and that is, of course, a cause for concern."

But Prof Chalkley said natural demographic shifts may help, in part, to ease the problem. "Scotland's ageing population is not a new thing," he said. "People have been talking about it for a long time and we have a device within our economic system that corrects this. If Scotland is an ageing society, there are many opportunities for employment within the service sector and it will draw in people from outside of Scotland who want to fill those positions."

The worries were shared in the political sphere, as both the Tories and Labour said the projection figure should act as a spur to the Scottish Government to publish its budget intentions as soon as it could.

The Conservatives said the changing demographic would inevitably put pressure on Scotland's health services – particularly in relation to free personal care. Health spokesman Murdo Fraser added: "These figures should help focus minds in the SNP government on budget priorities. We believe health spending needs to be prioritised, but in order to pay for this, extravagant gestures such as free prescriptions for all will have to go."

Labour, which backs free personal care and free eye tests, called for finance secretary John Swinney to "stop sticking his head in the sand" and publish his budget as soon as parliament returns in September.

The British Medical Association Scotland added its voice to the concerns. A spokeswoman said: "We are living healthier lives, but at some point people will start to suffer from conditions such as osteo-arthritis, heart disease and high blood pressure, and all of these require management and that creates pressures on local services."

A Scottish Government spokeswoman said it remained committed to free personal care. She added: "Our overall population is growing, and our older population is likely to increase in the coming decades – which reinforces the need for Scotland to secure economic and financial powers so that we can take decisions to boost growth and tax revenues in the Scottish economy."

Population: Migration on the rise - births and deaths down

The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends, which measured population trends in the year to 30 June 2009, showed that Scotland's population continued its recent rise, increasing by 25,000 to 5,194,000.

With 59,046 births in the year, the maternity rate dropped slightly by 2 per cent and there was also a small drop in the death rate.

The 53,865 deaths registered in Scotland during the year was the lowest figure since civil registration of mortality began in 1855.

But it was the area of migration that accounted for the majority of the increase. During the year, 45,400 people came to Scotland from elsewhere in the UK, and at the same time, 41.300 people left Scotland to live south of the Border and in Northern Ireland. Migrants from overseas amounted to 42,700 people and 25,200 left for countries abroad.

In total, the net inward migration totalled 21,600 - a record high and one that helped the country maintain an increase now spanning around six years.

According to the figures, most people arriving in Scotland were young, aged between 16 and 34, and the peak age for leaving the country was 23 to 24, reflecting the population shift that Scotland's universities bring with students arriving from all over the world and leaving after they have finished their degree.

According to the figures, most immigrants settled in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen and Perth and Kinross, which showed the highest net gain on immigration population with an increase of 5,894.

Glasgow was next with a net inward flow of 5,100 people and Aberdeen third with 3,903. East Dunbartonshire lost the most in population through immigration, with a net outward flow of 242 people.