Power blackouts for Scots homes if new energy plants are not built soon

"[Surplus capacity] is predicted by the National Grid to disappear within ten years, ie there will be electricity rationing by 2015 unless significant new generating capacity is installed" - RSE REPORT

Story in full ELECTRICITY blackouts, not seen since the miners' strike, could be imposed on Scottish households within nine years unless new power stations are built soon, experts have warned.

They claim that without radical work to modernise the National Grid, there will not be enough power by 2015 to keep the lights on in Scots homes.

The report published by the Royal Society of Edinburgh (RSE) into the future of the electricity industry says that without significant investment in power stations there will need to be "rationing".

This could mean the electricity supply to domestic properties is suspended during the day, although key sites such as hospitals would not be affected.

Professor Maxwell Irvine, a former principal of Aberdeen and Birmingham universities who chaired the committee that produced the report, said: "With the National Grid, unless there is investment in its infrastructure there won't just be inconvenience, there will be a crisis."

Politicians warned that blackouts would badly affect the elderly and other vulnerable people, and put jobs at risk.

At present, according to the report, Scotland produces about one-fifth more electricity than the country needs. But rising demand, caused by growth in the economy and the number of households, plus planned power station closures, means the capacity for generating a surplus is dwindling. By 2015, demand for electricity is forecast to rise 10 per cent.

It says: "[Surplus capacity] is predicted by the National Grid to disappear within ten years, ie there will be electricity rationing by 2015 unless significant new generating capacity is installed."

Dr Malcolm Kennedy, an RSE committee member, said: "With no spare capacity, if you have very bad weather in the winter, or a breakdown in a power plant, then you would have to do some load-shedding. That means cutting some people off or reducing voltages."

The only major new Scottish power station project in the offing is a BP hydrogen-fuelled plant at Peterhead using North Sea gas. The 350-megawatt plant is scheduled to open in 2009.

Its contribution, however, is dwarfed by the loss of the 1200MW coal-fired Cockenzie power station in East Lothian, due to close by 2015. EU rules on carbon emissions have made it too expensive to maintain.

The 1150MW Hunterston nuclear station in Ayrshire is reaching the end of its operating licence and is scheduled to shut by 2011, although its licence might be extended until 2016.

The two power plants supply just over a fifth of Scotland's 10,400MW generating capacity but demand is forecast to rise.

Torness nuclear power station is also facing closure, although not until 2023.

The report insisted that the expansion of renewable electricity sources, such as wind power, was not enough on its own to solve the problem.

Alec Johnstone, the Conservative Party energy spokesman, said: "This is another example of how policy can disadvantage the most vulnerable. The current hang-up with insisting such a large percentage of energy supply comes from renewables is just not acceptable if it means people will be denied access to power supplies.

"Ministers have to realise [this will] not only cause consumers difficulties but also cause real problems for the economy in terms of ensuring people have a job."

But the Green Party and the SNP accused the RSE of looking through "nuclear-tinted spectacles" at the issue.

Mike Weir, the SNP energy spokesman, said: "We are a considerable net exporter of energy. However, in the longer term we need to look towards other energy sources, whether that is from our coal reserves or from wind or tidal energy."

Stuart Hay, head of policy research at Friends of the Earth Scotland, said the report was "concerning".

A spokesman for Allan Wilson, deputy minister for enterprise, said the minister could not comment until the UK energy review was completed.

The National Grid said it did not recognise the report's findings and said it had estimated in its latest seven-year report that the margin in capacity by 2012 would be 46 per cent.