Yes vote for Scottish independence hits 4-year high in new poll as SNP enjoys resurgence

The poll is an encouraging one for supporters of Scottish independence

The SNP would comfortably emerge as the largest party with a pro-independence majority at Holyrood, a poll has suggested.

Research carried out by Norstat for the Sunday Times in the wake of John Swinney’s first Budget put the First Minister’s party on 37 per cent for constituency votes and at 32 per cent on the regional list.

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First Minister John Swinney (left) has seen his SNP party enjoy an upwards swing in the latest poll, to give them a lead over Anas Sarwar's Scottish Labour. Picture: PA/NationalWorldFirst Minister John Swinney (left) has seen his SNP party enjoy an upwards swing in the latest poll, to give them a lead over Anas Sarwar's Scottish Labour. Picture: PA/NationalWorld
First Minister John Swinney (left) has seen his SNP party enjoy an upwards swing in the latest poll, to give them a lead over Anas Sarwar's Scottish Labour. Picture: PA/NationalWorld | PA/NationalWorld

It also put support for a Yes vote in a Scottish independence referendum at 54 per cent when “don’t knows” are excluded - the highest level recorded in four years.

Scottish independence supporters on the march. Picture: Andy Buchanan/AFP via Getty ImagesScottish independence supporters on the march. Picture: Andy Buchanan/AFP via Getty Images
Scottish independence supporters on the march. Picture: Andy Buchanan/AFP via Getty Images | AFP via Getty Images

Analysis of the poll by expert Sir John Curtice suggested the SNP would be on 59 seats, Scottish Labour on 20, the Conservatives on 19, Reform on 13, the Lib Dems on 11 and the Greens on seven.

Such a result would mean a pro-independence majority of three seats at Holyrood, securing John Swinney’s place as First Minister. The SNP is governing as a minority with 62 MSPs.

The poll put support for Anas Sarwar’s party at 21 per cent in the constituency vote and 18 per cent in the regional list. Meanwhile, the Conservatives were on 14 per cent in the constituency vote and 16 per cent in the regional list.

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Writing in the Sunday Times, Sir John said Labour’s vote is being squeezed by the rising Reform UK vote as well as a resurgent SNP.

He said: “Just 21 per cent of Scots now say they would vote Labour on the constituency ballot for a Scottish parliament election, down nine points on Norstat’s poll in August and as much as 14 points below the party’s tally in July’s general election.

“The party is being squeezed at both ends of the political spectrum.

“At 12 per cent, the proportion of those who voted Labour in July who now say they would vote SNP is double the equivalent figure in August. Yet 13 per cent of the Labour’s July vote has now switched to Reform UK, up from just 5 per cent in August.

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“Consequently, the party’s support is down among both supporters and opponents of independence.”

Sir John said the blame for Labour’s decline appeared to lie with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, whose net approval rating was at -32 per cent.

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