With the SNP struggling and the Tories collapsing, are Scottish Labour under Anas Sarwar really back?

Scottish Labour has its eyes squarely on the next general election, but is it back as a serious political force?

When Anas Sarwar took over from Richard Leonard as leader of the Scottish Labour party just two years ago, the party was languishing in the low teens in the opinion polls, with the Scottish Greens breathing down their necks.

Three prime ministers, two first ministers, and two-and-a-half years later and the picture is radically different.

On a UK level, Labour is flying high and only the most ardent SNP supporter or Conservative dreamer believes there is any serious possibility of the party not winning power at the next general election.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar during First Minster's Questions. Picture: PA

That UK-wide renaissance, under the leadership of Sir Keir Starmer, has also brought success for Scottish Labour and a return to second place in the polls north of the border.

Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation and Humza Yousaf’s ascendance to the SNP leadership has coincided with the uptick in support for Sarwar’s party, leading some to predict a potential wipe-out of SNP MPs at the general election, with polls suggesting a possible return to minority governments or rainbow coalitions in Holyrood after the 2026 election.

The narrative, therefore, is set. Labour are back, they mean business, and the SNP’s decline is inexorable and guaranteed.

But this ignores not just the trend of the post-referendum years of independence support staying static, and high, and that resulting in positive electoral results for the SNP, but it also fails to consider the possibility the Labour revival is temporary.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer during the launch of the Labour party's mission on cheaper green power, setting out policies on clean energy, at Nova Innovation in Edinburgh. Picture: Jane Barlow/PA Wire

The view of some, such as former Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale, who told the Holyrood Sources podcast she did not believe the surge in the polls was real, is this boost is driven not by progress north of the border, but by broader winds in the UK political landscape.

The question begged, therefore, is whether Scottish Labour is really back, or is it simply a temporary return to the big leagues?

Five phases of recovery

When asked, Anas Sarwar points at several stages for the Scottish Labour recovery under his leadership.

Scottish Labour Party leader Anas Sarwar on the campaign trail in Hamilton. Picture: Lisa Ferguson

This started initially with simply surviving. It is a target that now may feel lowly, but in 2021 and facing a potential drop into fourth place, something the party had to prioritise.

With phase two came the requirement of becoming relevant again – another tick in that box since the election and the descent of the Tories as a serious alternative as their own psycho-drama took hold.

Phase three, undertaken in the past year or so, has been to develop a reputation of being credible in opposition. That too has been completed in the eyes of the leadership.

The next two phases are the most difficult, however, and Sarwar is aware that presenting the case for an alternative government and then actually becoming an alternative government through winning an election is tough and requires a significant amount of work.

"Of course Scottish Labour are back and anyone who says they aren’t, to be honest, has their own political motive for saying they aren’t,” he tells Scotland on Sunday in a bustling cafe in the heart of the potential by-election battleground of Rutherglen.

He adds: “Actually I’m quite happy for them to carry on the strategy they are doing, and we will carry on doing what we’re doing.

"Where I think we still have work to do, because I am not complacent for a second – there is no-one in Scottish politics that has their feet more on the ground, more focused on what we still have to do right now than me.

"We have still got work to do to persuade people not just that Labour can win, but that Labour winning matters. I think we’ve set a good frame for that.”

Sarwar also does not accept the lack of a broader, credible offering as a criticism despite it being levelled by some within his party, nor does he accept the suggestion the party’s improvement is simply down to the collapse of the SNP and the Conservatives.

"There is only one political party in the last two years and now that is trying to do any work to persuade anybody and that is Labour, and I am perfectly happy to be in that situation,” he says.

"I want to persuade people of what an alternative future looks like and what change looks like rather than just trying to incense two sides of what can be two angry mobs.”

Driving the recovery under Sarwar has been a root-and-branch organisational change, sparked by the struggles of the previous decade and a party machine that had crumbled since the 2015 wipe-out of Scottish Labour MPs.

One source said the party was a “Potemkin village” when Sarwar won the leadership, having been “hollowed out”, meaning much of the rebuild was not “fixable in a weekend”.

Sarwar is described by those in the party as having spent two years getting to “base camp”, from which it now feels ready to take on the SNP and present an alternative government.

Those within the party, staff and parliamentarians, have gained from training and development in a professionalisation and rebuilding of the party, with sources saying the leadership has looked to the examples of the Australian Labor Party and the Canadian Liberal Party and their electoral recoveries for inspiration.

Combined together, this is not dissimilar to the process undertaken by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in the mid-nineties when they took inspiration from the US Democrats, one source said.

There is a tight team around Sarwar helping to drive this change, with Kate Watson, chief of staff, described as “hugely important” – as if Peter Mandelson, Alistair Campbell, and a young David Miliband were all “rolled in to one”.

Head of policy Roseanna Dobbin is also highly rated, with communication of the party’s vision left to Oliver Milne, a former Daily Mirror journalist turned spin doctor who previously worked for the party as a press officer during the Johann Lamont and Jim Murphy years.

Much like Scottish secretary Alister Jack in his current role has turned the Scotland Office into an extension of the muscular unionist approach from the UK Tory party, there is a belief within Labour that a likely Ian Murray-led department will begin to develop that alternative offering.

With Murray as Scotland secretary and Sir Keir in Number 10 in a post-Brexit, internal market act devolution world, the possibility for direct intervention designed to undercut the SNP Scottish Government and deliver over the head of the Scottish Parliament is guaranteed.

There is also no allowance for complacency and a hunger among those at the top of the party to deliver on the opportunity that has opened up in front of them. Suggestions that a repeat of 2011, where the party led in the polls before being overtaken by a resurgent SNP – ultimately leading to the 2014 independence referendum – is on the cards are slapped down.

If anything, the party believes any similarity between 2011 and the coming general election sees the parties in opposite positions, with Labour benefitting from momentum and the SNP suffering from a spiral of negativity and a belief they deserve to govern.

Iain Gray, the now retired former leader of Scottish Labour who had a chastening experience that year, falling to second after leading in the polls for several months, said he believed Scotland was undergoing a profound change in how voters approach polling day.

"Voters who support independence and may still support the idea of independence are more willing now to decide how they are going to vote on the basis of other issues, the cost-of-living crisis, the NHS crisis, and pressure on schools and local services,” he says.

"That’s a very, very significant shift. It hasn’t happened since 2014. In the years after 2014, Scottish Labour did struggle to get that message across that whatever your view on independence is, you also need to think about the delivery of these things that are important to people’s daily lives.

"People are not changing their view on independence, but are prepared to think about voting differently on other issues at least now, and it is much to Anas’s credit that he’s managed to convince people that they can and should do that.”

Suggestions of complacency, however, is something Gray doesn’t see, partially due to the sheer scale of the opportunity for Labour to win and win significantly for the first time in years twinned with a desire for “profound change” from voters.

Referencing Scottish Labour’s fall from power in the late noughties, Gray said: "It’s not unfair to say that some colleagues did feel that there was something not right about us not being in power [in 2007] and it took quite a long time for it to really sink in that we were the opposition then.”

However, he added: "I don’t think they [current leadership] have any of that complacency about them at all, and I think that is true in regards to Westminster as well.”

Increasing confidence about winning

Labour sources are increasingly confident – much more so than a year ago – the SNP could struggle to hit its renewed, lower threshold of a successful general election of the most MPs.

This, they believe, is already tight and if voters who may have voted Labour pre-2011, but are wavering as the SNP flags decide to switch their vote again, the election could be devastating for the party and fatal for Humza Yousaf.

Some within the SNP have suggested a loss of 20 seats for the First Minister would be fatal to his leadership. Those within Scottish Labour do recognise the need for clarity on what the party is offering and accept they won’t truly be back until they achieve a significant electoral breakthrough.

"To be a government in waiting you need an alternative narrative, and a team of credible people, the opportunity to do it and a bit of time,” said one source, who lamented the fact the UK general election often means devolved issues drop to sidelines due to a lack of airtime.

Despite this, "deliverability and credibility really does form what we say and do”, says one senior Labour source. “If we win, even more so for us that the things we say are things that are able to be done.”

This is what explains some of the U-turns on policy, such as the watered-down commitment to £28 billion on green policies.

"Some of the attacks are because it is a plan and because some of it is a bit detailed and boring,” the source says. “In some ways it is a sign of the seriousness we are taking it and that we are going to have to take some serious decisions.

"We know some of these things are going to come with a cost so we need to deal with the economic realities we find ourselves in. You have to deal with reality.”

There is also no underestimation of Humza Yousaf, despite his early struggles, but there is a belief the Scottish Government under the SNP has lost some of its shine.

Labour sources believe the SNP is no longer thinking strategically and instead senior figures are forced to react. This, they say, looks “shallow” and will no “elicit trust” among voters.

There are, however, internal critics concerned about the lack of a broader vision and offering from Scottish Labour that goes beyond the simple “we’re not the Tories” message that dominates the party’s current language.

The lack of a more confident, less cautious, and more radical agenda irritates some and there is a belief there is a “top down” approach from UK Labour, leaving the Scottish party without a unique voice or offering.

Others point at the lack of a big tent approach to policy making and a sidelining of opponents and dissenters, though party leadership would reject this and sources have referred to Sarwar as someone who “consults widely” – a major departure from the tight groups around both Nicola Sturgeon and Douglas Ross.

But internal party democracy and bravery on policy positions is a recurring criticism of the leadership, with many pointing at oil and gas, the two-child benefit cap, and drug decriminalisation as issues Scottish Labour should have stronger, more radical positions on.

Others point to U-turns on proportional representation and a lack of “bolder policy development” around the constitution as something that could come back to bite the party in coming elections.

This has led to some questioning how involved the membership and activists are, accusing the leadership of having a deficit of ideas rather than simply being overly cautious.

One Labour source said, referring to drugs policy and the benefit cap, that “we're being embarrassed and finding ourselves making excuses for the UK leadership's appeasement of Tory policies at times unfortunately”.

All of these points are, unsurprisingly, flatly rejected by those close to the leadership.

Sarwar even questions the suggestion the U-turns on policy are “hurting” the party.

He says: "This language of hurting us, I think people can see momentum is with the Scottish Labour party and people are positively engaging with us again and moving back to us if they were voters of ours before or are supporting us [for the first time].

"I’m not sure where the language of hurting comes. On the wider issue of policy, I think people will recognise a grown-up, serious approach to politics.”

Sarwar adds: “Change doesn’t happen overnight. What we would do overnight is signal that we have a grown-up, serious government again, signal that we have a government that is about stability, economic stability.

"People will see that there’s a government that wants to deliver change and reform to our public services. I have no doubt that we will go into the election campaign with a radical change manifesto, but one that is consistent with our fiscal rules.”

‘Still a way to go to replace the SNP’

While polling is significantly better for Scottish Labour than it has been for around a decade, pollsters are yet to see a significant move towards the party from the voters who they need to unseat the SNP at the top of the Scottish political tree.

Mark Diffley, founder of polling and research company Diffley Partnership, says it is absolutely the case “Labour is in its strongest position in Scotland since the independence referendum”. However, he argues the party “still has a way to go to replace the SNP”.

Pointing at polling data that shows progress from Scottish Labour has slowed despite continuing to rise – with an increase of seven percentage points over the period of the Liz Truss premiership compared to just two points since just before the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon – the expert says the SNP’s travails have “so far not resulted in the significant move to Labour that may have been predicted”.

The pollster also points at data showing approval ratings for both Sarwar and Sir Keir have remained relatively static and Yousaf remains the more popular choice as “preferred First Minister”.

The SNP also remains the most trusted party on the economy, cost-of-living, education and the NHS, with the expert adding: “It is also clear the SNP will attack Labour from the left at the next election and will hope to capitalise on what it sees as weak Labour positions on the economy, tax, Brexit etc.

"The SNP will also hope that it can emerge from the current crisis it finds itself in and regroup in time for the election. We’ll see.”

Dr Fraser McMillan, who helps to run the Scottish Election Study, said it was clear Labour had replaced the Conservatives as the main party of unionists, with Scottish Labour “slowly, but steadily” having gained on the SNP since 2021.

This has been helped by some Yes voters peeling off to Labour, with around one in five shifting to the party for the next general election.

Dr McMillan adds: “Labour have benefitted from declining perceptions of both the SNP (among everyone) and the Conservatives (although among Yes supporters their ratings were already rock-bottom), the two governing parties. They're the least unpopular party in Scotland.

"A lot of Yes/SNP people were previously Labour voters and some still have an affinity with the party because they don't like the Conservatives and agree on a lot of general principles and Conservative troubles at Westminster have made Labour the 'natural’ party of those who oppose independence.

"Since the independence issue is struggling for oxygen with all these other crises unfolding, Labour are finally benefitting from a dynamic that previously hurt them, which is that they weren't seen as a viable option for people whose main concern was the constitution.”

However, he also warns it is possible the SNP are “close to their floor of support”.

Dr McMillan said: “There's still a long way to go before the next general election and I think Labour have the right strategy to maximise their support, downplaying the constitution as much as possible and running a ‘plague-on-both-your-houses’ campaign.

"But the SNP brand isn't what it once was and Yousaf has a big job on his hands limiting the damage. I certainly don't think Labour are ‘unstoppable’ in Scotland in the sense that the SNP still command the support of the vast bulk of the Yes coalition, but I do think we're seeing them clearly replace the Tories as the strongest pro-union party and a move away from the dynamic of the last few years.”

‘The alternative is independence’

While senior SNP figures try hard to appear unconcerned about the march in the polls, there is an acceptance Scottish Labour offer a different challenge to the Conservatives.

Despite this admission, there is still a belief that a Starmer government in Westminster is not an inherently destructive thing for the nationalist cause.

“It sets a good context for 2026,” said one senior source. “The Tories are down and out and Labour no longer get that free pass.”

The issues created by Brexit are also judged to be politically advantageous for the SNP given Labour’s decision to back Brexit as a project publicly, if only half-heartedly privately.

"There is a timidity about the Labour offering”, one source says, adding “they are not prepared to face up to the problems of Brexit – these are the issues that are dragging the UK down”.

Hope, too, that Labour promises will not match actual delivery, is also part of the thinking for the SNP.

"If the UK’s direction of travel does not meet expectations, then the SNP can say we have tried all the alternatives and it is still not working very well because Brexit Britain is an economically weak place,” the source says. "The alternative is independence.”

One minister adds: “We aren’t taking anything for granted, but what I am picking up is that nobody knows what Labour stands for. They don’t trust Anas and think Starmer is a Tory.

"They have definitely made an advance, but people still don’t trust them.”

There is an admission, however, that the goalposts shifting from 50 per cent plus one to a majority of seats at the next general election is partly down to expectations management, one mirrored by a public claim from Labour that ten seats would be success. Privately, the aim is closer to 20 or 25 if the party has an exceptional day.

But looking ahead to the Scottish Parliamentary election in 2026, SNP figures are more confident. They feel comfortable in the belief the possibility of a unionist rainbow coalition is something that could be weaponised in the SNP’s favour, while believing it would be politically difficult for Labour to finish second, but try to take power.

There is also a belief that Humza Yousaf, who has spent his first few months buried under the weight of the SNP’s ongoing police investigation, is yet to fully shine through on his own merit and that he will grow into the role.

"Yes, Scottish Labour are back,” one senior nationalist source says. “But only under the guise of UK Labour. That is lifting them. It is entirely down to Westminster.”

Asked whether he believed Scottish Labour were back, Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross says he believes it is the SNP that is struggling.

He says: “If you look at the by-election in East Kilbride, that has always been an SNP/Labour seat, they’ve always been the two dominant parties there, and our vote went up and we overtook the SNP and went into second place.”

And while internal discontent among Mr Ross’s own party continues, some internally believe it is Labour profiting from the SNP decline.

But a senior Conservative source adds: “Isn't their current polling a bit built on sand? The shift hasn't come about because of some great policy shift or new vision … one wonders if voters might feel they don’t have much new to offer beyond ‘we’re not SNP and we’re not Tories’.”

Another senior Scottish Conservative echoes the feeling that while many unionists were switching to Labour, there is not yet a reversal of the 2015 switch from Labour to the SNP at scale.

They say: “Many of the criticisms of Anas are reminiscent of what people said about Ruth [Davidson] in her heyday. Strong on communication and charisma, weak on policy and an underpinning vision.”

For Sarwar, he clearly senses an opportunity in the 2026 Holyrood election to deliver change and a Labour government, though not one that has a majority.

Instead, the Scottish Labour leader rules out coalitions and deals with the SNP or the Tories, but adds he wants to see the Parliament return to a minority government.

He says: “It was a Scottish Parliament for no one party to have a majority. Devolution was designed to be about, on individual issues, trying to get politicians to work together in the interests of Scotland.

"I want us to take us back to the principles of devolution, which is Parliament working for Scotland, not a Parliament working even against Scotland sometimes or sometimes working as a campaign to divide Scots or to divide the UK.”

Asked whether he would work with the Liberal Democrats in a coalition government, in a repeat of the early years of devolution, Sarwar states he is “willing to listen to good ideas from anybody”.

“I know [Scottish Lib Dems leader] Alex Cole-Hamilton’s favourite quote at the moment is the Liberal Democrats will be part of what’s next,” he jokes. "I am willing to listen to good ideas from anybody, but I’m not willing to be dictated to by anybody. Where there are good ideas and different politicians can work together to deliver for Scotland, that should happen.”

Are Scottish Labour really back? Many will say the party will only return when it wins again but, as the Scottish Conservatives were under Davidson, Sarwar’s team are firmly back on the pitch.