Why tactical voting battle will ramp up further as Labour hopes for change in Scotland

The party believes the constitution will play ‘second or third fiddle’ in next year’s general election

Tactical voting has long been a feature of Scottish politics. The country is divided along constitutional lines, and the SNP and Conservatives have capitalised on this. Both have benefited from the Yes/No split.

Labour, on the other hand, has floundered. The constitution generally does nothing for the party. It hopes things are about to change.

There is a sense of momentum gathering behind Labour as Sir Keir Starmer eyes the keys to Downing Street. After the English local election results saw the Tories shed more than 1,000 councillors, Sir Keir insisted his party was on course to win a majority in next year’s general election.

Sir Keir Starmer

In Scotland, Labour insiders hope the constitution will now play “second or third fiddle”. “We are going to paint this entire election as a ‘get the Tories out’ election,” one said. Labour is targeting up to 20 seats in Scotland. It wants to shift the conversation away from the constitution and emphasise that central message.

The SNP, meanwhile, is urging Labour and Lib Dem supporters to lend their votes to the party to "lock the Tories out of Scotland". It says the SNP is the main competitor in every Tory-held seat in Scotland, and the incumbent in all Tory target seats.

The Nationalists say they more than halved the number of Tory seats in Scotland in 2019, and senior figures believe they can now "finish the job" if enough Labour and Lib Dem supporters vote tactically for them.

The six Tory-held seats in Scotland include Moray, the constituency of Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross, who has a slim majority of 513 votes over the SNP.

Part of the SNP’s message is that it could hold the balance of power if there is a hung parliament after the next election. This would “put Scotland in the driving seat”. Crucially, the party would use its position to demand the devolution of powers over a second referendum.

Senior figures told the BBC they will make this demand a central part of their campaign. But there is a widespread view on both sides of the constitutional divide there will not be another referendum any time soon. The SNP has also used similar messaging in past general elections.

Meanwhile, the scandals engulfing the party could damage its electoral prospects.

For his part, Mr Ross recently caused friction in his own party after suggesting voters could tactically back other parties to oust the SNP. "I will always encourage Scottish Conservative voters to vote Scottish Conservatives,” he told the Sunday Telegraph. "But I think generally the public can see, and they want the parties to accept, that where there is a strongest candidate to beat the SNP, you get behind that candidate.”

Mr Ross later backtracked on these comments, but he knew what he was saying. He’ll be quite happy with the SNP’s talk of the “Better Together band” tuning up again.

Whether Labour can bypass this constitutional divide remains to be seen. But expect the battle over tactical votes to ramp up as the general election draws nearer.