Analysis

Where does the SNP go from here, as splits emerge after its night of election humiliation

John Swinney’s party will need to listen, learn and adapt

With the dust beginning to settle on the SNP’s night of humiliation, where does it go from here? That’s the question many nationalists are asking after the party collapsed from 48 MPs to nine.

There are no simple answers. It’s easy to identify failings – but much harder to settle on a route forward. SNP politicians are now looking to the next Holyrood elections with a sense of trepidation.

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“Unless there is a significant and defining political renewal within the party, we are in line for a generational defeat in the Scottish Parliament elections in 2026,” former SNP MP Stewart McDonald wrote in The Scotsman over the weekend.

First Minister John Swinney. Picture: Jane Barlow/PA Wireplaceholder image
First Minister John Swinney. Picture: Jane Barlow/PA Wire

He said the party had slowly lost its reputation for integrity and competence. Meanwhile, internal debates have been “allowed to descend into fact-free fantasy football territory”.

The SNP must “rebuild our reputation for competence and integrity through our actions and align our priorities with those of the Scottish people”, Mr McDonald continued, and he backed John Swinney as the man to do this.

Not everyone has confidence in Mr Swinney, however.

Former health secretary Alex Neil said the SNP needed a “fresh start with a leader who isn’t associated with the failures of the Sturgeon years”, while Jim Sillars, deputy leader of the SNP in the early 1990s, argued the current leadership is a “busted flush”.

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Joanna Cherry, the former MP for Edinburgh South West, took aim at Nicola Sturgeon’s time in charge. "I fear that under the leadership of Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP has squandered opportunities to advance the cause of independence, and squandered opportunities to continue our previous reputation for governing well,” she told journalists shortly after losing her seat.

Ms Cherry said she had encountered “real anger” on the doorstep, with deep unhappiness over the existing record of the Scottish Government.

Clearly, there are issues within the SNP that need to be addressed. Some serious soul-searching is required. Mr Swinney might even have to be “ruthless”, as Mr McDonald put it. Avoiding a toxic descent into in-fighting or naval-gazing will be difficult, however.

If you want to put a positive spin on it, the SNP’s trouncing on July 4 could provide it with a much-needed chance to reboot. There is little doubt things have felt tired and stale for quite some time. Few could muster any enthusiasm for its lacklustre independence papers, for example.

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But this will only be possible if uncomfortable truths are tackled head-on. Will politicians and members have the appetite for that?

Mr Swinney has already committed to rethinking the SNP's approach to independence. The party’s leadership should be honest with members about the long road ahead. Ms Sturgeon’s “de facto” referendum wheeze – never particularly convincing – now feels like a very long time ago indeed. Nobody is expecting the SNP to abandon its raison d'être, but the debate needs to move on.

The Holyrood election is two years away. By the time it comes around, the SNP will have been in power in Scotland for 19 years – an astonishing length of time. Labour’s message of change may be just as powerful north of the border as it was in relation to Westminster.

The question is, will the SNP be able to change first?

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