What can we expect from the Scottish budget on Thursday

For most the early days of December are a chance to start looking ahead to Christmas, doing some shopping for gifts, or even planning the big day itself. Not for Derek Mackay.
Derek Mackay said a tax rise is being consideredDerek Mackay said a tax rise is being considered
Derek Mackay said a tax rise is being considered

The Scottish Finance Secretary’s big event, at least at the start of this month, is the set-piece budget he will deliver to MSPs on Thursday.

As the SNP is once again in a minority administration, the hard work starts, rather than ends with the speech that Mr Mackay gives in submitting his draft budget proposal at Holyrood.

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By and large, we already know the demands of the other parties as Mr Mackay prepares in earnest to begin political horsetrading.

But what of outside groups? What do pressure groups, business leaders and other bodies want to see from one of the most important days of the Scottish political calendar?

Business leaders

There aren’t many things that can unite big-business industry group the CBI and the pro-Scottish independence network Business for Scotland, but it seems that the income tax rises predicted to be unveiled on Thursday appeared to have done just that.

Nicola Sturgeon’s party outlined detailed proposals earlier this year that would change Scotland’s income tax bands.

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Scots small businesses oppose income tax increase in budget

While the SNP notes that those earning less than £31,000 would not see their taxes increase, those earning more would be impacted by a rise in their basic rate of tax, depending on which of their four ‘approaches’ the Scottish Government takes.

The CBI, which represents the employers of half a million people in Scotland, has called for ‘parity of income tax’ with the rest of Britain.

Their director, Hugh Aitken, said last month: “On income tax and business rates, we simply can’t afford for a chasm to open up between Scotland and the rest of the UK if we want to remain competitive.”

The Federation of Small Business is also on record as being ‘unconvinced’ by the move to raise income tax.

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Perhaps most surprising is the intervention of pro-independence Business for Scotland, who say that the tax plans ‘are not a positive move’.

Charities

As those who opposed the ‘swim tax’ will attest, Derek Mackay has shown himself willing to listen to charities and charitable trusts when it comes to his decisions.

The extension of a business rate that would have negatively impacted leisure trusts and potentially have closed sports centres and swimming pools was eventually scrapped.

With the tax position unclear, it is on individual issues that many charities are pursuing their agendas ahead of Thursday’s budget.

The Arts and Business Scotland charity collected the signatures of over 100 leading figures in both those worlds to urge Mr Mackay to protect funding for the arts.

Homelessness is very much an issue in the news at the minute after 8,000 people took part in a ‘sleep out’ in Edinburgh over the weekend.

Homeless Action Scotland chief Gavin Yates said in advance of both Mr Mackay’s budget and that of Westminster equivalent Philip Hammond that action was ‘at a crossroads’.

He called for substantial investment over five years to help make changes that the charity feels can end homelessness entirely.

Others

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Councils will also undertake an intense lobbying operation before, during, and after Thursday’s budget, with concerns over their funding from the Scottish Government once again writ large.

While there are no changes expected to be announced this week, the thorny issue of the charitable status of private schools could also come up as part of a larger political attack on the SNP with regard to middle class families.

Their exemption from business rates was challenged in a report earlier this year, and representatives of private schools could use the budget to once again press their case.

Whatever happens on Thursday, it is sure to spark days, weeks and months of intensive debate on Scotland’s economy and finances, with no immediate political solution obvious as it stands.