Voting Lib Dem could help the Conservatives, admits Kennedy

The Liberal Democrat leader has predicted that the coming election will deliver a series of "unpredictable" results - including the Tories benefiting from Labour voters who defect to his party.

His admission will be seized on by the Labour Party, which wishes to fight the Lib Dems out of the election by portraying the vote as a two-horse race for 10 Downing Street - arguing that a vote for any other party will help the Tories.

In an interview with The Scotsman ahead of his address to the Scottish Lib Dem conference in Perth today, Mr Kennedy said: "There’s a much more fluid feel about voting intentions for this election than any I have come across. Really anything can happen in the proper campaign.

"It’s a much more unpredictable election than the sort of breakdown of national opinion polls would suggest. That’s one of the reasons the run-up to the election has been so long since the turn of the year."

Widespread mistrust in Tony Blair could combine with a lack of faith in the Conservatives to play into the hands of the Lib Dems, he said.

But in seats where the Lib Dems are a distant third, this could simply weaken the Labour vote and let the Tories in by default.

"I’m no psephologist, but there are about 20-ish seats where you could make the case for saying if there was a direct swing from Labour to Liberal Democrat it could benefit the Tories," he said.

"But equally, I don’t think that will be a uniform pattern across the country. The swings will be in varying directions, depending on the nature of the contest and what part of the country you are in."

In Scotland, a swing to the Lib Dems could help the Tories win Dumfries & Galloway. The Scottish National Party is also hoping for a Lib Dem resurgence to help it win Dundee East and Ochil & South Perthshire.

The vast majority of Lib Dem target seats are in Conservative constituencies, and the party is expected to claim many Tory scalps if its vote is augmented by defecting Labour voters.

Oliver Letwin, the Shadow Chancellor and David Davis, the Shadow Home Secretary, are among the Tories under threat from the Lib Dems should Mr Kennedy succeed in capturing the anti-Blair protest vote.

The last YouGov poll for Scotland on Sunday put the Lib Dems in joint second place with the SNP in Scotland. But UK polls suggest it will remain stagnant with 55 seats.

Mr Kennedy said he will make trust a centrepiece of his campaign. "Our mantra has been freedom, fairness, trust, and I think the trust issue is very important indeed," he said.

"That’s why we’re not going to promise what we can’t deliver or make outrageous claims." But he defended his intention to suggest that university in Scotland has now been made free - leaving out the 2,150 bill payable on graduation.

"There is not a payment made on the part of the student at the time of education on tuition fees," he said. "And that is the definition of tuition fees."

The graduation bill is "money paid after the event" - and does not stop Lib Dems saying tuition fees have been scrapped.

Mr Kennedy played down the idea of going into coalition with Labour if Mr Blair fails to win an overall majority.

"Whatever the result, we will carry on at Westminster as we are - which is on an independent basis pushing our own policies," he said.

But he suggested he may change his mind if Mr Blair suggests a move to Scottish-style voting system.

"If the Prime Minister picked up the phone and said, ‘What about PR?’, then I would be right along the street," said Mr Kennedy.