Vote of no confidence: Douglas Ross in a pickle after Boris Johnson gamble turned sour

When Douglas Ross called on the Prime Minister to resign, he did so when it appeared as if the writing was on the wall for the survivalist Boris Johnson.

But then what everyone thought was imminent – a no-confidence vote – simply didn’t materialise and the Scottish Conservative leader was faced with heading into an awkward party conference weekend.

It was at this point the Moray MP U-turned, withdrawing his letter of no confidence, no longer calling for the resignation of his boss, just after the attendance of the Prime Minister at the P&J Arena in Aberdeen was confirmed.

His later shift – after the publication of the Sue Gray report – was another U-turn, of sorts, saying Mr Johnson should stay in place, but only while the war in Ukraine continues.

Mr Ross also argued that a finding by Westminster’s privileges committee stating the Prime Minister knowingly misled Parliament would also leave Mr Johnson “little option” but to resign.

Hours before the vote, the W-turn was complete and the Tory leader said he would vote against the Prime Minister.

Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, u-turned on his call for Boris Johnson to go

The mood among Scottish Conservative MSPs in relation to how this has been handled by Ross is closer to resigned passivity than active mutiny, despite almost all publicly backing their leader when he first called for the Prime Minister’s head.

Many recognise the fact Mr Johnson is as close to as it is possible to get to the opposite of an electoral asset in Scotland and complain about the failure of Mr Ross to seek out a wider pool of advice.

There is also no obvious successor to the current leader, a problem shared in Holyrood and Westminster.

The post-mortem after the local elections, where the Conservatives suffered significant losses across Scotland, demonstrated the party machinery itself recognises the Prime Minister is harming the Scottish Conservative brand.

You do not blame Partygate and Boris minutes after polls close without the party leadership having made up their minds on Mr Johnson’s own behaviour and ability.

Let us not also forget Mr Ross resigned as a Government minister over the handling of Dominic Cummings’ own lockdown breaches.

His mind appears made up and the secrecy of the ballot no doubts add a layer of uncertainty about the difference between public statements and his actions.

Ultimately, however, whatever his private views and whatever his vote at the 1922 committee, Mr Ross’s gamble has cost him and his party dear.

His decision to U-turn, in particular, at a moment in time when the Prime Minister appeared safe for now but still a Partygate fine and a report away from the serious political peril he finds himself in, has damaged confidence in his leadership and judgement.

Appearing on stage in front of party faithful just weeks after calling for him to resign was a reminder for many of the lack of sway the Scottish party has on its bigger, southern brother.

The Scottish Conservative brand, which Ruth Davidson succeeded in detoxifying, is now festering under the influence of and association with Mr Johnson.

It is a weakened electoral force as Scottish Labour make incremental gains and the Conservatives struggle to hold on to the coalition of pro-union voters across Scotland who, as the local elections demonstrated, will not get out and vote for this leadership.

Fighting a general election in these conditions could be catastrophic.

The terms of the bet remain the same. It’s either Mr Ross or Mr Johnson’s future on the line.

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