Trading weapons for a piece of power

General elections in the Irish Republic are expected early next month - and Sinn Fein stands to win up to six seats, compared with one at the moment. In Dublin’s system of proportional representation, this can mean real power.

In the election campaign, votes are purchased by the surrender of weapons. Yesterday’s move by the IRA represents Gerry Adams preparing to take Sinn Fein into a new paradigm of power.

Six seats in Westminster would deliver nothing. But if elections to the Dail (the lower house of the Irish parliament) are close, then this makes Mr Adams a potential kingmaker.

As the Liberal Democrats have shown in Scotland, finishing in fourth place in elections governed by PR can be a more powerful political position than finishing second.

A precedent already exists in the form of the Progressive Democrats, who have only four seats in the Dail, but are nonetheless partners in government with Bertie Ahern’s Fianna Fail.

The image Mr Adams will be promoting is Sinn Fein: party of government. Four years ago this would have been laughable, but devolution in Northern Ireland has shown the party has both a taste and aptitude for offices of state.

Martin McGuinness, formerly the IRA chief of staff and still a member of its army council, is proving a surprisingly competent minister for education.

He has been one of the few Northern Ireland ministers to take control of his department, switching off the civil servant autopilot and making reforms for both Catholic and Protestant schools.

Bairbre de Brn, another Sinn Fein MA, has recovered from a shaky start as minister for health and is now busy ploughing through tasks such as banning tobacco advertising.

The Ulster Unionists are partly to blame for that success. They thought Sinn Fein would do more damage with the culture portfolio so claimed it for themselves - leaving Ms de Brn to the health brief.

The Northern Ireland assembly will succeed - few doubt that now. Just as the Lib Dems use their position "in government" in Scotland as an advert for the UK elections, so Sinn Fein will boast about their executive credentials in the Republic.

Its main liability has been that, regardless of the competence of its Stormont ministers, Sinn Fein remains the political wing of the IRA.

This is the weapon which its rival republican parties will be using - and it is not the only one. Fianna Fail, which sees Sinn Fein as a threat in a number of marginal seats, is also trying to link it with anti-crime vigilantism.

This is why decommissioning is more important in the south of Ireland than in the north. It slays a number of historical ghosts in the south, certainly, but Sinn Fein needs to show it is being accepted into the political mainstream. Yesterday’s announcement has all the hallmarks of a Downing Street backroom deal. Mr Adams was in London meeting the Prime Minister last month and, last week, official sources were suggesting that a second act of disarmament was imminent.

The next move from Downing Street will be a form of amnesty for on-the-run IRA suspects - a direct quid pro quo for Sinn Fein.

Mr Adams has been able to demonstrate that the rank-and-file Provisional IRA members are accepting the deal. It would have been a stronger sign had the announcement been made in the IRA’s traditional Easter message, relayed to supporters at rallies throughout Ireland to commemorate the 1916 rising.

If Sinn Fein fares well in the elections, then this will be reward for its patience. With the prize of a deputy first minister position in the air for next year’s Stormont elections, there is more to be won from the spoils of peace.

‘This process can work’

THIS is the IRA statement in full:

“The leadership of Oglaigh na h-Eireann [the Irish Republican Army] has taken another initiative to put arms beyond use.

“This follows detailed discussions between our representative and the IICD [Independent International Commission on Decommissioning].

“This initiative is unilateral at a time when there are those who are not fulfilling their obligations.

“It could be argued that the IRA should not take such an initiative, but it is precisely because of this that an initiative has been undertaken, so the peace process can be stabilised, sustained and strengthened.

“We fully appreciate the difficulties this causes for republicans, however the IRA is a highly disciplined and committed organisation.

“This is a leadership initiative.

“We are relying on the discipline and commitment of our support base and our volunteers.

“We remain committed to achieving our republican objectives.

“However, the securing of a democratic peace settlement is not solely a task for Irish republicans and we are mindful of the primary obligation of the British government and of the Unionist leadership.

“This process can work if there is the political will to make it succeed , the IRA has once again demonstrated that will.”

The statement was signed P O’Neill, as with all statements from the IRA’s leadership.

‘We have an inventory of the arms’

THIS is the statement to the British and Irish governments from the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning confirming a second IRA act of decommissioning:

"We wish to inform you that we have witnessed an event in which the IRA leadership has put a varied and substantial quantity of ammunition, arms and explosive material beyond use.

"In accordance with the governments’ scheme and regulations, we have made an inventory of the arms concerned, which we will provide to the two governments when our task is completed.

"As before, we have agreed to the IRA’s condition of confidentiality regarding details of this event, as provided for in the same scheme and regulations.

"We will continue our discussions with the IRA representative in the pursuit of our remit. We will also continue our discussions with the loyalist paramilitary groups."

Four years of talking

APRIL 1998: The 65-page agreement is drawn up, proposing devolution of some central government power to a Northern Ireland assembly. It is welcomed by the Ulster Unionists, the SDLP and Sinn Fein. DUP leader Ian Paisley denounces it as "treacherous".

21 May 1998: The first all-Ireland poll since the general election of 1918 sees the agreement approved by 71.2 per cent of voters in Northern Ireland and 95 per cent of the Republic of Ireland electorate.

29 JUNE 1998: David Trimble is elected First Minister designate of the assembly with the SDLP's Seamus Mallon deputy first minister.

15 AUGUST 1998: Dissident republicans using the name "Real IRA" detonate a 500lb bomb in the centre of Omagh on a Saturday afternoon. The bomb kills 28 people and injures 200 - the worst single atrocity of the Troubles. A 29th victim dies later.

1 DECEMBER 1999: Power is passed from Westminster to Belfast at midnight.

2 DECEMBER 1999: The Irish government removes its territorial claim to Northern Ireland from its constitution and the Anglo-Irish agreement is revoked.

The IRA announces that it has appointed a representative to the international body on decommissioning.

11 FEBRUARY 2000: Despite furious last-minute negotiations, no deal is struck on decommissioning and Secretary of State Peter Mandelson signs the order to suspend the assembly just before 6pm.

26 MAY 2000: Amid intense lobbying by both anti and pro-agreement unionists, the UUP's Jeffrey Donaldson MP publishes what he says is an alternative plan for devolution. He recommends that the party's ruling council supports his move to insist on a prior start to decommissioning.

Party leader David Trimble dismisses it as a "Unionist wishlist".

27 MAY 2000: David Trimble secures the backing of his party to re-enter the power-sharing assembly despite no decommissioning of IRA arms.

26 JUNE 2000: The two international arms inspectors, former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari and former ANC secretary general Cyril Ramaphosa, report that they have been secretly taken to IRA arms dumps, inspected them and concluded that the arms cannot be used without their detection.

4 MARCH 2001: Dissident republicans detonate a car bomb outside the London headquarters of the BBC after warnings are given.

1 JULY 2001: First Minister David Trimble resigns - but nominates fellow UUP minister Reg Empey as caretaker, triggering a six-week period in which to resolve the impasse over arms.

1 AUGUST 2001: The British and Irish governments unveil a package of proposals aimed at breaking the deadlock, with the focus on policing reform, demilitarisation, stability of the institutions and a reiteration of the importance of decommissioning.

23 OCTOBER 2001: The IRA announces that it has begun a process of putting arms beyond use in line with an agreement with the Independent International Decommissioning Commission. Hours later the IICD confirms it has witnessed the disposal of arms and describes it as "significant".

8 APRIL 2002: IRA says it has put more of its weapons beyond use.