How the threat of Reform and its 4 million votes looms large over Tory party conference

Conservative party conference kicks off this week, with the Tories still unsure as to what they are.

While Russell Findlay may have secured the leadership for the Scottish party, questions still remain as to who will replace Rishi Sunak as leader of the opposition.

Robert Jenrick, Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat, and James Cleverly will all pitch their vision for the Conservatives to party members in Birmingham, to argue they can make the party winners again, rather than just participants.

Russell Findlay after he is announced as new Scottish Conservatives leader, at the Radisson Hotel in Edinburgh. | PA

The problem for them, however, aside from the scale of the Labour majority, is that another selection of voters are also listening. Would-be leaders are not just asking for support from Conservatives. They are also trying to bring back voters from Reform.

Nigel Farage's party won more than four million votes at the general election and came second in 98 seats, of which 89 were won by Labour.

Picking up these voters is crucial not just to the Tories chances of winning the next election, but also maintaining their status as the second party. While it is deeply unlikely that Reform could supplant them, that is still the stated aim of Mr Farage, so something the new Tory leader will have to be mindful of.

From the campaign so far, it seems they are. Candidate after candidate has done their best to stress their own right-wing credentials, whether it be values they’ve long held, or an ideology they have adopted. Consider Robert Jenrick, a man who boasts of how many “illegals” he wants to deport, has painted over murals for children, and said anyone who shouts “Allahu Akbar” on the street should be arrested immediately. This is not the small ‘c’ Europhile politics of David Cameron, Ruth Davidson or even Boris Johnson. Despite this, Mr Jenrick voted remain. It’s the same for shadow security minister Mr Tugendhat, considered to be the candidate of the left of his party, and a Europhile. He’s now backed leaving the European Convention on Human Rights if it doesn’t reform.

This schism of where the party stands is most clearly seen in the words of Ms Badenoch, who claimed one of her party's mistakes in government was "we talked right, but governed left". Policies such as the Rwanda scheme, national service and cuts to welfare are not remotely left wing, but the party is now pretending otherwise as it seeks to reinvent itself.

The fourth candidate, Mr Cleverly, is still promising to resurrect the Rwanda deal.

So conference arrives with the party still figuring itself out, with not just one leader’s speech, but several, where policy is less important than the vibes, where members will be asking themselves three questions. Do I like this candidate? Is what they are promising realistic? And can they win? Delivering on all three is a big ask, with Liz Truss a prime example of a leader who can win the membership, but lose the country.

This all comes in the backdrop of the new Scottish Tory leader being elected, with Mr Findlay a traditional Conservative holding traditional Conservative values. We do not yet know if the same can be said for its UK leader.