The year of 'reckoning': Why 2025 will make or break Sir Keir Starmer and the SNP

With Labour floundering in the polls just six months into forming a new government, Sir Keir Starmer has much to think about as we enter the new year.

The Prime Minister rode to power on a sweeping desire for change. But his tough decisions, on the winter fuel allowance, inheritance tax and the two-child benefit have dismayed voters, while his flagship policies have failed to win over the public.

MPs gathered to hear the result of the vote on the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill. PIC: House of Commons/UK Parliament/PA Wire

Removing VAT exemption for private schools, sweeping improvements to workers’ rights, nationalising rail and GB Energy seem like radical policies, but they have not landed with the public, who like many of his own MPs, still wonder what Starmerism actually looks like.

Then there is Scotland, with the Holyrood election looming large for Scottish Labour, with the party’s excitement over the vote having dampened by the day. Talk of the £22.2 billion black hole left in the public purse by the Tories may be true, but the SNP have spent and spent big. In short, John Swinney’s party are back in the game.

Speaking to MPs, there is a feeling that 2025 is a year of reckoning, where delivery is everything, and failure to do so for both Labour and the SNP will help the other, as well as boosting Nigel Farage’s Reform.

MP for Clacton and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage also reportedly banked £1.5 million for appearing in the jungle in 2023. The rightwing politician was a controversial booking, but went on to come third in the series. | Getty Images

Then there is the spectre of international conflict, with Russia and developments elsewhere likely to create issues between the Treasury and the Minister of Defence, with Labour still unclear when it will reach 2.5 per cent of GDP spend on the area.

SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, who may yet stand down next year to run for Holyrood, told this newspaper Labour’s troubles had created opportunity for his party, with Sir Keir now needing to win back trust.

He said: “I think in the Westminster context, the focus down here is very much going to be upon how the UK government, the Labour party, gets itself into a position where it’s able to regain trust with the people whose trust it has lost in the space of six months.

“I think it’s important for us, not to forget as I think perhaps some people have, that the cost-of-living crisis hasn’t gone away. Energy bills will go up at the start of the year and based on reports ... are going to go up again in the spring.

“We know the OBR [Office for Budget Responsibility] is very sceptical about economic growth. We know that there's going to be a huge impact right across the business, community, third sector and the public sector, as a response to the National Insurance rise, which will come at the start of the year.

“So the wider economic landscape is going to define whether they are able to regain that trust or not. I don’t believe they’re going to be able to do so.

“I think that affords us in the SNP the opportunity to tell a slightly different story about how we want Scotland's economy to run and, in the build up to the Scottish Parliament election, widen the gap, which has now emerged between ourselves and the Labour party.”

Labour MP Torcuil Crichton was more optimistic about his party’s chances, citing the SNP’s record and saying 2025 could be a year of “reckoning”.

Torcuil Crichton: "Communities which host these turbines must see their share of the gain.”

He said: “I think what is coming is that public services in Scotland are reaching a terminal state, in terms of the fabric of schools, hospitals, social care, roads, and ferries, in my case. It’s all reaching the very end.

“I think what we're in danger of doing is somehow accusing the SNP of benignly mismanaging, when in fact they are wilfully destroying what is left now. They know what they are doing, and they are avoiding very hard decisions in terms of applying the resources that have been given or rationalising services. They are not being straight and they have to be because, just as we found in 2024, the Tories had wilfully mismanaged public services.

“[I think] 2025 will be a year of reckoning as the public sees what they are doing, or the Scottish Government responds by actually doing something, as they cannot continue doing what they are doing.”

The MP for Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Mr Crichton suggested 2025 would be about pledges, with all parties outlining promises ahead of the Holyrood election.

He said: “2025 will also be about promises being made as candidates go into place, that drumbeat of campaigning. I think that campaigning will be about holding the SNP to account on what they have and haven’t done. They have been given good resources in a very difficult budget and we have to start seeing the results of that.

“GB Energy will be up and running in Aberdeen. It’s going to roll its sleeves up and get involved in community energy schemes, to enable communities in the west coast and islands to build, renew and expand their own energy schemes, so we all get a share of this wealth of wind.”

Torcuil Crichton predicted a year of “reckoning”

New Scottish Labour MP Chris Murray suggested the lack of elections in 2025 would allow the UK government to focus and boldly make the case for devolution.

He said: “2025 could be the year devolution comes of age. It’s one of the rare years when Scotland isn’t facing an election or a referendum. Austerity has been ended by the new Labour government, and constitutional issues are far down the public’s agenda. So it feels like next year is a real opportunity for a real focus on the critical devolved issues that affect people’s lives, like the health service, education, crime and living standards.

“Because when you look around Scotland - my God, is that conversation overdue. Public services in Scotland aren’t working. Whether it’s in the ever-worsening NHS statistics or the heart-breaking stories of people waiting in pain for treatment, we have got to finally get serious about how we fix this. Continuity won’t cut it, as it were.”

Scottish Tory John Cooper, the MP for Dumfries and Galloway, had a more international outlook, arguing defence spending and strategy would be a “key theme” of the year.

He said: “The incoming Trump presidency will put pressure on all Nato members to up their spending, and Labour has said our spend will go up to 2.5 per cent of GDP, but has been very sticky on the timeline, so it’s a big ask, but absolutely unavoidable.

“Who knows what will happen with Ukraine. [Donald] Trump always likes to say he can cut a deal, he might well do. There’s been a very interesting shift in language from both [Ukraine president Volodymyr] Zelensky and Starmer on having everything lined up for peace. That doesn't sound like Ukraine must win anymore, and suggests they might have to cede some territory. If you look at the global horizon, that’s only one of many issues.

“Immigration is going to be a big issue. What is Trump going to do? Trump does seem to tackle immigration and has talked of deportations. That is going to throw into sharp focus Europe and Britain’s approach. And it’s not an unreasonable ask to say if they are doing that, why aren’t we?”

Lib Dem MP Christine Jardine called the next year a “blank sheet”, but predicted Labour dissatisfaction would bubble over.

She said: “I am looking for more from the Scottish Labour MPs. If they continue like this at Westminster, with policies that damage Scotland, and don’t seem to take Scotland into account, they won’t have the result that they want. We need them to do well, for the rest of us to do well, and get rid of the SNP.

“I am looking for more Scottish Labour MPs to put pressure on their leadership to make them realise they have got to think about the Scottish elections.”