The worrying picture for SNP painted deep in the Gers figures - John McLaren

Any thoughts that the Finance Secretary Shona Robison had of her budget balancing job being easier under independence were torpedoed by the latest GERS publication. In fact the challenge would be considerably tougher.

The UK Government is trying to manage down a negative fiscal balance (deficit) that amounted to 4.5 per cent of GDP in financial year 2023-24, Scotland’s was over double that, at 10.4 per cent.

While tax revenues per person (including the North Sea) were almost identical, government spending per person is around £2,400 higher in Scotland compared to the UK average. This means the Scottish Government would need to find £13 billion just to get to the same budget deficit position that the UK currently finds itself in. A daunting task.

Shona Robison insisted her meeting with union leaders and Cosla chiefs had been 'productive'

Even the revenue figures aren’t great. Excluding the North Sea, Scotland’s are around £600 per person lower than for the UK, despite a higher income tax regime. Once the oil money goes that’s another £3 billion which needs to be found.

And the figures, in per person terms, would actually be worse in 2023-24 were it not for the fact that population estimates are rolled forward from the year before, when actually the UK’s population is very likely to have risen again relative to Scotland’s.

Of course, all of this assumes that an independent Scotland would pursue the same tax and spend policies as the UK does. Which seems fair enough given that the SNP refuses to outline what any such changes would be. Realistic adjustments to tax and spending are too unpalatable to be put forward, while unrealistic ‘solutions’ - like not inheriting any of the UK’s, now massive, debt - induce winces from all but the most bravehearted of supporters. So, in the absence of an alternative, it is not unreasonable to concentrate on the option that actually exists.

And the worrying news doesn’t stop here. GERS also contains breakdowns of where the money is spent. This shows that in 2022-23 there was a 12 per cent drop in spending on health in Scotland, compared to a two per cent drop for the UK. The Scottish figure bounced back strongly in 2023-24 but health spending remains below its 2021-22 level whereas it is over two per cent higher for the UK. Equally, spending on ‘education and training’ is 11 per cent higher in the UK (2023-24 vs 2021-22) but only four per cent higher in Scotland.

Such shortfalls are partly explained by higher spend on Social Protection policies, like additional child benefit payments. However, questions remain around the size and source(s) of such spending patterns, as well as over the relative merits of extra spending on benefits at the expense of the health and education budgets. Tricky. Unfortunately budget decisions often are.

All of the key findings discussed above are uncontentious. They are repeated year in, year out by reputable bodies like the Fraser of Allander Institute and the Institute for Fiscal Studies. If the pro-independence argument is to move forward then the logjam around how to deal with these ‘difficult’ numbers needs to be broken. Until then the main purpose of GERS is to remind us of how moribund the SNP has become in putting together a coherent case on the economic and fiscal aspects of independence.