The 'astonishing' £130 billion bill for SNP Government's green buildings target

The cost of decarbonising Scotland's homes and buildings could be as much as £130 billion, a report has warned - four times more than the Scottish Government's official estimate.

Stephen Good, of the Just Transition Commission (JTC), said Scotland needed to "get real" about the costs involved. He also suggested the country was hugely behind on its ambition to decarbonise at least one million homes by 2030, and needed to be doing "about 30 times as much as we do at the moment". 

The Scottish Government said it would carefully consider the report as it seeks to reach net zero emissions by 2045.

The JTC, an independent expert group advising the Government, said new investment models were required. It looked at four key sectors: energy; transport; land use and agriculture; and the built environment and construction.

Mr Good, a construction expert who addressed the latter area, said “we need to get real about the costs”.

He said: “The Scottish Government has estimated £33bn is needed to decarbonise Scotland’s homes and buildings. We have approximately 2.6m homes and 230k non-domestic buildings, so if you do the basic maths, that’s about £11.5k/building. 

"That might just about cover the installation cost of a heat pump in an easy-to-treat property. To meet the tougher end of the net zero objectives, we’ll need likely four times that investment, so circa £45k/building to do it once and do it properly, which is more like £130bn, not £33bn. So we need to get really serious about the costs of achieving net zero, who’s going to pay, and how.”

However, he said there were massive job opportunities. 

Elsewhere, Mr Good said the ambition to decarbonise at least one million homes by 2030 was only six years away.

"We’re currently installing around 5,000 zero carbon heating systems per year - that’s just heating systems and doesn’t include building fabric energy efficiency works," he said. "That’s 19 per day or about 2.5 per hour. So we need to be doing about 30 times as much as we do at the moment."

Tory MSP Douglas Lumsden said: “These astonishing figures lay bare how drastically behind schedule the SNP are in their bid to meet their own green targets."

He added: “Rather than dithering and delaying, it’s high time the SNP Government had a reality check about the costs involved in decarbonising buildings if they are serious about meeting their 2030 targets of decarbonising at least one million homes.”

Professor Dave Reay, co-chair of the JTC, said he hoped the new report would establish “a shared understanding of where we are on this national mission, and what now needs to happen if we are to finance a truly just transition to a low carbon economy”.

Co-chair Satwat Rehman said: “Our report leaves no room for doubt that if investment in Scotland’s journey to net zero is left to the market alone, we will see an unjust and ineffective transition.

“We need government at all levels to play a pro-active role in making sure the costs and benefits associated with these major, but foreseeable changes are shared equitably.

“This will involve new ways of working collaboratively and building up capacity where required to meet this challenge head-on, demonstrate responsible economic stewardship, and make the most of the tremendous opportunities net zero brings for economic and social renewal.”

A Scottish Government spokesman said: "With emissions in Scotland already nearly cut in half, we are well positioned to continue leading on climate action that is fair, ambitious and capable of rising to the emergency before us.

“We are seeing sustained demand from households seeking to decarbonise heat in their homes. Last year the Home Energy Scotland Grant and Loan Scheme supported people to install more than 2000 heat pumps - a 17 per cent increase compared to the same period the previous year – and more than 1,500 energy efficiency measures.”