The 13 constituencies where postal vote scandal could change the result

Around a quarter of Scots will be using a postal vote to cast their ballot in the general election on Thursday.

But ongoing delays in the postal service mean many still haven’t received their postal vote.

Many constituencies are on a “knife-edge” at this election, according to First Minister John Swinney - meaning every vote counts.

Mr Swinney has written to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak about the issue after Mr Sunak insisted he had no concerns.

In the letter, the First Minister said: “This has led to people in Scotland who did everything they were meant to do in order to secure their right to vote in this general election not being able to exercise that right.

“The effects of the delayed postal votes have been more serious in Scotland because the general election is being held at a time when most Scottish schools are on holiday.

“If it would not be acceptable to hold a general election on a day when England’s schools are on holiday, it should not be acceptable to do so on a date when the schools of any UK nation are.”

Some local authorities have now set up emergency centres to help those who have applied for a postal vote and not yet received their pack.

We take a look at the constituencies which are too close to call, where delays to the postal votes could really make a difference.

Edinburgh South West

The polls are split on who will win this seat - either the SNP’s Joanna Cherry KC, or Labour’s Scott Arthur.

MRP polling suggests the SNP could narrowly hold onto this seat - but with a zero per cent margin, meaning the majority could be incredibly small.

Edinburgh is one of the council areas to have set up an emergency centre for delayed postal votes.

Other candidates include Sue Webber (Conservative), Bruce Wilson (Lib Dem), Dan Heap (Green), Ian Harper (Reform), Richard Lucas (Family Party) and independent Marc Wilkinson, and a result is expected at 4.30am.

Read more: How general election opponents are battling to topple SNP’s Joanna Cherry in key Edinburgh seat

Glasgow North East

Almost all the polls suggest Labour’s Maureen Burke will win in Glasgow North East.

However MRP polling suggests Labour will take this seat from the SNP’s Anne McLaughlin by a zero per cent margin.

Ms McLaughlin won the seat in 2019 with a majority of 2,548, but lost the seat to Labour’s Paul Sweeney in 2017 by just 242 votes.

Those who have not received their postal vote in the city are asked to contact Glasgow City Council to arrange for a replacement, which can be picked up from a council office.

Other candidates include Robert Connelly (Conservative), Sheila Thomson (Lib Dem), Ewan Lewis (Greens), Catherine McKernan (Alba), Chris Sermanni (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition), Gray Steele (Communist) and Jonathan Walmsley (Reform), and a declaration is expected at 3.45am. 

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

The polls are split on who will win this constituency, between the SNP’s Allan Dorans and Labour’s Elaine Stewart.

MRP polling suggests there will be a Labour gain here, but it will be by as little as one per cent.

Other candidates here include Martin Dowey (Conservative), Paul Kennedy (Lib Dem), Corri Wilson (Alba), Korin Vallance (Greens) and Andrew Russell (Reform), and a declaration is expected at 3.30am. 

Dumfries and Galloway

The polls are all over the place in this constituency - the SNP’s Tracey Little, the Conservatives’ John Cooper, and Labour’s James Wallace have all been predicted to win by different pollsters.

MRP polling suggests the Conservatives could narrowly hold this seat, but only by as little as one per cent. 

A special helpline has been set up by Dumfries and Galloway Council for those who haven’t received their postal votes yet, on 01387 260008 or [email protected].

Other candidates include Iain McDonald (Lib Dem), Laura Moodie (Green), David Griffiths (Heritage) and Charles Keal (Reform), and a declaration is expected at 3.30am.

Edinburgh North and Leith

Most polls suggest Labour’s Tracy Gilbert will take this seat from the SNP’s Deidre Brock - but the margin could be as little as one per cent.

Edinburgh is one of the councils to set up an emergency centre for those who haven’t received their postal votes yet.

Other candidates include Joanna Mowat (Conservative), Mike Anderson (Lib Dem), Kayleigh O’Neill (Green), Niel Deepnarain (Family Party), David Jacobsen (Socialist Labour), Alan Melville (Reform), Richard Shillcock (Communist) and independent Caroline Waterloo, and a declaration is expected at 4.30am.

Glasgow West

Most polls suggest Labour’s Patricia Gibson will take this seat off of the SNP’s Carol Monaghan.

However MRP polling suggests this one will also be tight - the margin will be less than one per cent. 

Those who have not received their postal vote in the city are asked to contact Glasgow City Council to arrange for a replacement, which can be picked up from a council office.

Other candidates include Faten Hameed (Conservative), James Calder (Lib Dem), Nick Quail (Green), John Cormack (Christian) and Dionne Moore (Reform), and a declaration is expected at 3.45am.

Glenrothes and Mid Fife

The polls are split on this seat between the SNP’s John Beare and Labour’s Richard Baker.

MRP polling suggests Labour could gain this seat, ousting the SNP, but it would be by a one per cent margin.

Fife House in Glenrothes is open until 5pm up until polling day for those who have not received their postal votes to get one reissued, and a private booth has been set up inside for those who want to complete their postal vote there and then.

Other candidates include Debbie MacCallum (Conservative), Jill Reilly (Lib Dem) and Ian Smith (Reform), and a declaration is expected at 1.45am.

Mid Dunbartonshire

The polls are not quite in agreement on what will happen here.

Most polls suggest the Lib Dems’ Susan Murray will win this seat, but Savanta says Labour’s Lorna Dougall will win it.

MRP polling actually suggests the SNP’s Amy Callaghan will win, albeit by a one per cent margin.

East Dunbartonshire Council says anyone who hasn’t received their postal vote yet should get in touch.

Other candidates include Alix Mathieson (Conservative), Ray James (Alba), Carolynn Scrimgeour (Green) and David McNabb (Reform), and a declaration is expected at 3.30am.

Orkney and Shetland

Most polls agree the Lib Dems’ Alistair Carmichael will hold onto this seat, although MRP polling suggests the margin could be as small as one per cent.

More in Common has predicted the SNP’s Robert Leslie will win this seat.

This could also be an issue as there is a high number of postal voters in this constituency - almost all those living in the small isles on Orkney have a postal vote, for example.

Anyone affected should contact either Orkney Islands Council or Shetland Islands Council to get help.

Other candidates include Conor Savage (Labour), Shane Painter (Conservative), Alex Armitage (Green) and Robert Smith (Reform), and a declaration is expected at 5.30am.

Read more: General election 2024: Scottish Highland love story - what's behind popularity of Lib Dems in the north?

North East Fife

This constituency was won by the fewest votes back in 2017 - the SNP’s Stephen Gethins only won the seat by two votes.

Most polls suggest the Lib Dems’ Wendy Chamberlain will win again, however MRP polling has the SNP’s Stefan Hoggan-Radu winning by a two per cent margin.

Fife House in Glenrothes is open until 5pm up until polling day for those who have not received their postal votes to get one reissued, and a private booth has been set up inside for those who want to complete their postal vote there and then.

Other candidates include Jennifer Gallagher (Labour), Bill Bowman (Conservative), Morven Ovenstone-Jones (Green) and Matthew Wren (Reform), and a declaration is expected at 2.45am. 

Read more: North East Fife: The battle for Scotland's most marginal constituency

Alloa and Grangemouth

There are some big names on the ballot paper in this constituency, including the SNP’s John Nicolson and Alba’s Kenny MacAskill.

However Labour’s Brian Leishman could be the victor here - the polls are split between him and the SNP, but it could be by as little as two per cent. 

Those who haven’t received their postal vote here should contact the elections office on 01259 452255 or [email protected], and they can collect a replacement from Clackmannanshire Council’s headquarters in Alloa - they can also complete and submit their postal vote in private here.

Other candidates include Rachel Nunn (Conservative), Adrian May (Lib Dem), Nariese Whyte (Green), independent Eva Comrie, Richard Fairley (Reform) and Tom Flanagan (Workers’ Party), and a declaration is expected at 2.45am.

Read more: The general election battle for the 'single biggest issue' facing Scotland

Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch

The polls are split between the SNP’s Stuart McDonald and Labour’s Katrina Murray.

MRP polling suggests Labour could win this seat from the SNP by as little as two per cent. 

East Dunbartonshire Council says anyone who hasn’t received their postal vote yet should get in touch.

Other candidates include Satbir Gill (Conservative), Anne McCrossan (Green), Adam Harley (Lib Dem) and Billy Ross (Reform), and a declaration is expected at 3.30am.

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

The polls can’t decide on who will win this seat.

The Conservatives’ Andrew Bowie, the SNP’s Glen Reynolds and Labour’s Kate Blake have all been predicted to win this seat by different pollsters.

MRP polling suggests Labour could take this seat off of the Conservatives with a two per cent margin.

Those affected have been asked to contact Aberdeenshire Council on [email protected].

Other candidates include Michael Turvey (Lib Dem), William Linegar (Green), Brandon Innes (Reform), independent Iris Leask and independent David Neill, and a declaration is expected at 4.45am.