Support for ID cards does not add up

GOVERNMENT claims that Scotland is backing plans for a national identity card are based on a survey of fewer than 200 people, The Scotsman can reveal.

Following a Freedom of Information Act request, the Home Office has admitted that its main poll of public opinion in Scotland used a sample group of just 158 people. That is just a small fraction of the size which independent pollsters say is required for reliable results.

The Home Office claims that 69 per cent of Scots endorse the government's plans. Until now, the department has not admitted that claim, but it indicates only that 109 people in Scotland have said they are in favour of ID cards.

The sample size prompted independent experts and opponents of the ID card scheme to cast doubt on how the government is making its case.

The government's main claim for public support was made in a document published last October, "Identity Cards Trade Off Research - Final Report".

The report contained details of a survey carried out by the pollsters TNS, which showed that 73 per cent of people across the UK support the ID card proposal. The Home Office later said the same survey showed that 69 per cent of people in Scotland were supportive.

The October report did not disclose the number of people questioned.

But in response to The Scotsman's request, the Home Office has admitted the Scottish sample was 158 people.

By contrast, most commercial surveys of public opinion in Scotland use a sample group of about 1,000 people.

According to one calculation, the small sample used increases the margin of error for the government's poll to plus or minus 8 per cent. Most commercial polls have a margin or error of less than 3 per cent.

One independent pollster who has worked for ministers in Edinburgh and London said the sample size called into question government claims about Scottish support for ID cards.

"I'd be very careful about making any claims on a poll of that size, since the margins of error involved are much larger than normal - the results of a poll like this are much less meaningful," said the analyst.

And John Curtice, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University, also urged caution. "It's too small a sample for us to say what the true level of support is," he explained.

Geraint Bevan, of NO2ID Scotland, said the sample size of the Home Office poll in Scotland showed ministers had not been honest about public opinion.

"That the Home Office only felt it necessary to ask 158 people for their views on ID cards shows just how little regard they have for Scottish opinion," he said.

"To claim any kind of mandate on the support of just over 100 Scots is ridiculous."

A Home Office spokeswoman said that, despite the doubts about the survey, the government was right to claim popular support for the ID cards plan, which was finally approved by parliament this week.