SNP told more heat pumps must be installed 'rapidly' in homes as 'immediate action' urged by climate advisers

The Scottish Government will need to ramp up action to ensure Scotland can still reach net zero by 2045 - with costs of up to £19bn predicted.

Experts have told SNP ministers to rethink rolling back controversial heat pump plans amid a stark warning that keeping net zero progress on track “will require immediate action, at pace and scale”.

Independent advisers, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), has set out new proposed targets for the Scottish Government to get Scotland’s stuttering progress in cutting harmful emissions back on track. It comes after SNP ministers abolished their legal 2030 target and vowed to redraw the metrics to measure progress.

The Grangemouth complex is one of the biggest single sources of climate-harming greenhouse gases in Scotland, belching out around three million tonnes of emissions each year | National World

Alongside the proposed targets, the CCC has set out a series of recommendations that SNP ministers will need to bring forward action on if the aims are to be met - with the costs estimated to be around £750 million a year - around £19 billion in total up to 2045.

Last year, the Scottish Government confirmed it was overhauling its climate targets after admitting that its flagship legally-binding ambition to cut emissions by 75 per cent by 2030 was no longer possible.

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Instead, SNP ministers told Holyrood that instead of headline targets charting a route to net zero, when Scotland’s contribution to the climate crisis will end, there would be a move to carbon budgets - used by the UK and Welsh governments - to measure progress.

The carbon budgets will restrict the total amount of greenhouse gases Scotland can emit over a five-year period.

But the CCC has indicated that under the carbon budget model, instead of the 75 per cent 2030 target, that has now been scrapped, Scotland would need to have cut emissions by 57 per cent, compared to 1990 levels of pollution, over the next five years.

Given the weakening of the 2030 ambition, more drastic action will be needed after 2030, with the carbon budget up to 2035 suggesting 69 per cent of progress, 80 per cent by 2040 and 94 per cent by 2045.

READ MORE: Scots could face more drastic transport and heating rules amid 2045 net zero fears

A Scottish Government monitoring report published on Tuesday on the now out-of-date climate change plan revealed only 16 of 43 progress indicators are on track.

Interim chairman of the CCC, Professor Piers Forster, said: “Scotland’s new system of carbon budgets will help guide the action we need to get to net zero by 2045. We’re delighted to be able to present a good news story about how Scotland can decarbonise.

“But we do need to see action now. The Scottish Government has devolved powers to deliver the necessary emissions reductions in key sectors, particularly buildings, surface transport, agriculture, and land use. We encourage them to exercise these powers as quickly and fully as possible.”

Surge in heat pump uptake needed

The CCC has stressed that two-fifths of homes in Scotland should be heated by low-carbon electric systems by 2035, adding the “majority” of these would be heat pumps, with this then rising to 92 per cent of properties by 2045.

John Swinney has flirted with the idea of exploring hydrogen as a source of low-carbon heating. His Government has signalled that a blueprint to decarbonise heat, first drawn up by Scottish Greens co-convener Patrick Harvie under the Bute House Agreement, will be watered down - with a requirement for people to change their heating system removed and the onus put onto the Scottish Government.

READ MORE: SNP poised to U-turn on Patrick Harvie's hydrogen boiler ban amid heat pumps slump

In its advice, the CCC said that “annual heat pump installations in existing homes will need to accelerate rapidly, reaching nearly 35,000 by 2030”. Little more than 6,000 heat pumps were installed in Scotland last year.

However, the CCC stressed this “rapid increase in installation rates is feasible”, although it said “immediate policy support” would be needed.

Air Source Heat Pumps

The CCC also said it was “disappointing” Scottish Government plans to require heating systems to be converted to low-carbon technologies after a property was sold “have been abandoned” by ministers as they revamped the Heat in Buildings Bill.

Concerns have been raised over the affordability of heat pump systems, despite Scots enjoying the most generous grants and loans anywhere in the UK. The majority of homes in Scotland will be able to install heat pumps, although for some off-grid and isolated properties, other low-carbon heating methods will be needed.

Some tenement properties in Scotland’s cities are likely to opt for district heating systems instead of individual heat pumps. Crucially, homes will need to be better insulated for heart pumps to be as effective as possible to lower heating demand, with uptake in Scandinavian nations far greater than Scotland.

Electrification the way forward

“Electric technologies are now the clear low-carbon choice in many areas,” the CCC said. “Technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles (EVs) are available today, and could be deployed rapidly, provided the right incentives are in place.”

In Edinburgh the council is doing little to encourage expansion of electric vehicle charging points beyond the 312 available now

While the number of public EV charge points is already 7 per cent higher per person in Scotland than the UK average, ministers were told the number of chargers would “need to continue to increase in line with EV uptake”.

With the overhaul relying on a switch away from fossil fuels to electricity, the CCC stressed the importance of “making electricity cheaper”, with the organisation already making that a “key recommendation” to the UK government.

Progress has been ‘too slow’

Claire Daly, head of policy and advocacy at WWF Scotland, said the advice should act as “a light-bulb moment” that ministers “needs to take action”.

Jamie Livingstone, head of Oxfam Scotland, added: “Scotland’s climate action so far has been too slow, too shallow and too soft on polluters and that’s got to change.

“To stick within these proposed carbon budgets, we must swap delay and dither with proper investment in warm homes, sustainable travel and green jobs.”

READ MORE: SNP scraps gas boiler ban amid fears heat pump push 'burdening' public

Scottish Conservative shadow net zero and energy secretary Douglas Lumsden pointed to the net zero costs of almost £19bn by 2045, branding them “jaw-dropping”.

Mr Lumsden added: “That will alarm hard-pressed families and businesses who will fear being hammered with higher bills if they are forced to carry the burden themselves.”

Conservative MSP Douglas Lumsden has submitted nearly 1,000 questions, at a cost of about £100,000, on subjects including the provenance of beeswax used for the Great Seal of Scotland | supplied

Scottish Labour net zero spokesperson Sarah Boyack said “from upgrading homes to supporting green transport, there is clearly a huge amount the SNP could do right now to make Scotland a fairer, greener country”.

SNP acting net zero secretary Gillian Martin said the Scottish Government would “carefully consider” the CCC’s advice before “bringing forward regulations to set Scotland’s carbon budget levels”.

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She said the work would involve “an assessment of whether the pace of decarbonisation is appropriate for people, sectors and businesses across Scotland”.

Ms Martin said: “The carbon budgets proposed via secondary legislation will provide an achievable pathway to net zero by 2044 - one that takes the public with us, leaving no one behind.

“The scale of the change needed for the next part of our journey is significant, but it also comes with significant benefits for our communities. Delivering our ambitious climate targets transforms our economy and society. They will be underpinned by sustained investment, both public and private, in infrastructure.”