SNP set for Holyrood majority, but poll shows independence support slipping from record high

The SNP is set for a significant majority at the Holyrood election in May, a new poll has shown.

The poll, from Ipsos Mori/STV, shows support for the incumbent ruling party sits at 55 per cent for the constituency vote and 47 per cent for the list vote, equating to 73 MSPs taking their seat in the Scottish Parliament and a clear majority.

It also showed support for independence remains high at 56 per cent in support of Yes, down two points since the landmark poll of 58 per cent in October.

With ‘don’t knows’ included, support for independence sits at 53 per cent, with No on 41 per cent, and don’t knows on 6 per cent.

The SNP are set for a historic majority at Holyrood in May

The Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour both have seen an increase in support of three points since the last poll, with their support now showing at 22 per cent and 16 per cent respectively for the regional list vote.

In constituency terms, the Scottish Tories are slowly clawing back at the 33 per cent lead for the SNP, with their support up three points to 22 per cent.

These gains came from support for the SNP dropping from 58 per cent and the Scottish Liberal Democrats dropping two points to 6 per cent for the constituency vote.

Both the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Greens also saw drops of two points to 6 per cent and 7 per cent respectively in the list vote.

If the vote was held today, the Scottish Conservatives would take 27 seats, Scottish Labour 19, with the Scottish Greens and Scottish Liberal Democrats both returning five MSPs.

The polling also showed the SNP was still most trusted to deal with education and the NHS, and is the most trusted party in Scotland.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, said: “Our latest polling results are clearly very favourable for the SNP, with support both for the party and for an independent Scotland remaining high.

"The party’s record on key issues such as the economy, education and public services has been much criticised by the Conservatives in recent months.

"However, those messages do not appear to be cutting through with Scottish voters, who trust the SNP much more on the economy, education and the NHS than they do any other.”

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