Will lack of GPs derail SNP's political gamble to make NHS revival a key election pledge

The SNP has vowed to hit key NHS targets in the lead-up to next year’s Holyrood election.

The SNP is making a huge political gamble by making NHS targets a key election pledge next year - but will a lack of GPs derail the plans and play into the hands of Labour?

It is no surprise that the Scottish Government’s record on the NHS will be a key part of Labour’s attack lines on the SNP in the run-up to the Holyrood election in just over a year’s time. But John Swinney’s government has stared down that incoming pressure by vowing to meet key NHS waiting time targets just ahead of that crunch election.

GP appointments could be a key political battle between Labour and the SNP at next year’s Holyrood election | PA

Health Secretary Neil Gray has published his government’s NHS operation improvement plan - formalising much of what we have heard from Mr Gray and the First Minister since the draft Budget for the coming financial year was published in December.

Mr Gray has insisted his blueprint is “ambitious but realistic”, pointing to an aspiration to “increase the number of appointments, speed up treatment and make it easier to see a doctor”, with a focus on “better using digital technology”.

Read more: SNP ministers urged to create new umbrella body to help GPs stay in Scotland

SNP ministers have been given a boost to their funding by Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government for the next financial year with a record £21 billion allocated to health and social care.

A key part of Mr Gray’s strategy, understandably, is to take pressure off primary care such as at hospitals and GP surgeries. His blueprint sets out that “increasingly, assessments and specialist care will be delivered in new and innovative ways and settings, including at home”.

For hospitals, the strategy is, not exclusively, about ensuring patients’ stays are streamlined where possible, as well as “optimising alternatives to hospital admission” and “reducing avoidable admissions”. If this was as easy as it sounds, you would think it would have been done before.

First Minister John Swinney and Health Secretary Neil Gray | PA

For GPs, the vision is focused on increasing capacity through “new GP early career fellowships and an enhanced GP retainer scheme”. Improving GP capacity is easier said than done - governments have tried to do so in the past.

For all the targets and aims the Scottish Government has drawn up to fix the NHS, fixing the over-capacity of GP surgeries and the public feeling that getting an appointment is a lottery, would completely change the narrative that health services are broken.

But the elephant in the room, for GP capacity and the wider NHS hold-ups, is staffing pressures.

Despite a Scottish Government vow to increase the number of GPs by 800 by 2027, the number of patients per GP has increased from 1,515 in 2013 to 1,743 in 2024.

Read more: Scottish Labour vows to end '8am GP rush'

Professor Andrew Elder, president of the Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh, has called for “further efforts to be made in boosting the recruitment and retention of doctors”, warning this will take “many years”. There is no quick fix for GP recruitment and staffing, but the Scottish Government’s pre-election NHS strategy hinges on instant success.

For Labour, while they have appealed to public sentiment by vowing to “end the 8am rush” for GP appointments - the party wanting a go at being in charge is yet to bring forward convincing detailed plans about how they would actually make the NHS work better.

But plans to seriously improve GP capacity by whoever wins the Holyrood election, will likely require the difficult task of renegotiating GP contracts - an unenviable task for whoever forms the next government.