SNP ‘on course for Northern Isles victory’

The SNP has been widely predicted to vastly increase their number of MPs. Picture: Greg Macvean

Statistics from Electoral Calculus show that the SNP has a 56 per cent chance of securing victory in the constituency, compared to the Liberal Democrats’ chances of 41 per cent.

Figures suggest that the SNP will win 37.8 per cent of the vote, up from 10.6 per cent in the 2010 General Election, and enough to see off the Liberal Democrats, who are predicted to lose nearly half of their share, down from 62 per cent in 2010 to 35.5 per cent on May 7.

Electoral Calculus projects results of the general election based on analysis of opinion polls as well as electoral geography.

But Nationalist candidate Danus Skene was cautious over the prediction.

He told the Shetland Times: “This is only one set of figures, and predictions of a 56 per cent likelihood of an SNP win, against 41 per cent for the Lib Dems need to be treated as just one view from one organisation.

“However, with little over four weeks to go until polling day it appears that the momentum is with the SNP and my teams in Orkney and Shetland will be doing all they can to get the positive message across to voters that having an MP who is part of a strong team of SNP representatives at Westminster can only be good for the islands.”

The Orkney and Shetland seat has generally been considered a safe Liberal seat since 1950, when Jo Grimond was elected for the Liberal Party, ending Basil Neven-Spence’s 15-year tenure as the MP for the constituency.

The seat was first held by Sir Alexander Douglas of Eagleshay, between 1707 and 1713.

Former Scottish Lib Dem leader Jim Wallace held the seat from 1983 until 2001, when he was elected MSP for Orkney and Shetland.

Current Secretary of State for Scotland Alistair Carmichael was elected the Northern Isles’ MP in 2001.