SNP must be '˜brilliant' to win indyref2 - finds study

The SNP must be 'brilliant' at running Scotland from Holyrood to persuade people that independence will benefit the country, an academic study has found.

Nicola Sturgeon addresses the SNP conference in 2017. Picture: John Devlin

Undecided voters want to be given “facts” upon which to base their decision, which is likely to be based on the “here and now”, according to the research carried out by Heriot-Watt University.

Based on a detailed study of six focus groups, it found that many people who voted No in 2014 or remained undecided felt they were bombarded with untrustworthy statistics rather than facts.

The research, carried out by the university’s associate professor in marketing Dr Iain Black, is due to be formally presented at the Scottish Independence Convention (SIC) in Edinburgh on 4 November.

Nicola Sturgeon addresses the SNP conference in 2017. Picture: John Devlin

The study was commissioned by the SIC as part of attempts by the pro-independence side to gain a greater understanding of why Scots voted No in 2014.

In an article for the National newspaper, Dr Black said voters were asked for their “feelings, beliefs and opinions” on independence, their thoughts on the future and what might change their minds.

He concluded that the best way for the SNP to persuade Scots of the benefits of independence would be to run the country extremely well from Holyrood.

Nicola Sturgeon addresses the SNP conference in 2017. Picture: John Devlin

“Considering voters’ dissatisfaction with statistics, their desire for ‘facts’ and their use of their own lived experience, it becomes vital for the Yes movement to take evidence from the here and now and project it forward to provide a trajectory to success,” Dr Black wrote.

“As the voters appear to need to see and feel change now as a way of making the case for independence in the future, to do this (no pressure here!) the SNP must be brilliant at their day job.”

The study also found that there has been no surge in support for independence in the wake the Brexit vote because people are feeling “overwhelmed” with big political decisions.

Most Scots are taking a “wait and see” approach to Brexit which has not yet begun to influence their voting intentions on independence, it suggested.

“One of the clearest themes from all groups is that voters are overwhelmed, tired and confused,” Dr Black wrote.

“This is mainly due to the number of recent elections and that these have led to greater uncertainty and change.”

The finding suggests that Nicola Sturgeon was right to “reset” her plans for another independence vote.

In June, after the SNP lost 21 seats at the general election, the First Minister said voters wanted a break from deciding big constitutional matters.

Dr Black also found that while some No voters felt “betrayed” by the UK as they now faced leaving the EU, many also felt that the Government should now be left to “just get on with it”.

He wrote: “Brexit hasn’t happened yet and the independence movement must be careful about making assumptions about its power to change minds.”