Swinney's 'sophisticated' Choose Scotland campaign shows SNP's independence push treading water
The SNP has struggled to push forward the case for independence and a campaign spending spree is unlikely to be a game-changer.
John Swinney’s keynote conference speech attempted to ramp up the energy and hopes for independence - but the party’s “most sophisticated campaign” has the dread of simply treading water.
Things might have been different had the SNP done the almost-impossible and won that fabled majority at May’s election. That benchmark tabled by Mr Swinney was out of reach. If anything, the party went backwards - losing seats.
“Our independence is very close”, Mr Swinney told activists and SNP politicians in his Aberdeen address. But in reality, the SNP delivering independence has not looked further away since before the party did manage to secure a majority in 2011.
Mr Swinney boasted that the party is ramping up its campaign with a “six-figure war chest” and will be “backed by our enthusiasm and energy”. But to some indy-curious Scots, that may well feel like good vibes is all the Yes movement has to offer right now.
If Mr Swinney’s speech was all about rallying the troops in the room, then the SNP leader hit the button. But if the SNP is looking to build a consensus outside the political bubble, first in support of a referendum and then independence itself, energy and positivity will likely not be enough to reach that tipping point.
The SNP leader pointed to three big elements of the No campaign back in 2014 - pensions, defence and Brexit - and warned that those arguments are now in tatters. Whilst true, Mr Swinney still doesn’t have all the answers and the detail on how an independent Scotland would approach those key tensions.
Andy Burnham’s wobble over a second independence referendum has been seized upon by the SNP, understandably. The new PM has made clear that the Yes campaign being able to build support for independence to an all-time high is how a referendum is delivered.
Mr Swinney believes the “stars are aligning” for the independence cause, while in reality, this has always been the case. The SNP has just failed, so far, to raise support for separation, to the level required.
The new slogan, “Choose Scotland” was blown up behind Mr Swinney as he delivered his speech and was printed on the front of the conference handbook.
While some may see it as a cheesy tagline, there is some sense behind the strategy.
The Scottish government has often spoken about having a ‘team Scotland’ approach, particularly on the international stage. Whilst this is a different kettle of fish, a collaborative approach to independence, on a nation basis rather than the SNP and the Greens under the Yes banner, is canny.
It is simple for Mr Burnham to reject calls for the SNP for more powers or that cherished second referendum. It is much more perilous for the PM to turn down calls for those same things, if they are coming from businesses, faith groups, trade unions and big parts of civic Scotland. Mr Burnham, a renowned people-pleaser, will feel much less comfortable saying no to a nation.
But for Mr Swinney and the SNP, there are no timescales, there is still no real route to deliver independence.
The lack of those basic practicalities and still an inability to answer some of the biggest questions over what independence would look like in reality, makes the task of building support for separation even more difficult.
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