Sir John Curtice on SNP polling challenge in wake of Nicola Sturgeon arrest

Polling expert Sir John Curtice has said Nicola Sturgeon’s arrest would not necessarily affect SNP support but may make it more difficult to recover lost ground.

Polling expert Sir John Curtice. Picture: John Devlin

Speaking to the BBC, Sir John was asked for his assessment of the impact of Sunday’s events.

"Perhaps not necessarily as much as the drama might suggest,” he said.

"The reason for saying that is that we have now had five opinion polls by four different companies since the arrest of Nicola Sturgeon's husband at the beginning of April...but the level of support for the SNP in the polls at 38 per cent is exactly what it was on average after Humza Yousaf became leader of the SNP. Equally the level of support for independence around 47/48 per cent, that also is unchanged.

"Now that's not to say the SNP doesn't have it's political difficulties, it certainly does. It faces a Labour party north of the border which is much rejuvenated. It is also true SNP support is down from what it was when Nicola Sturgeon resigned but the decline in support occurred during the SNP leadership contest, and the problem Humza Yousaf faces is that voters in Scotland, including many of those who voted for the SNP at the last election, are not necessarily convinced that (he) is the right person to be first minister.

"Now, how does he want to try and reverse that position? Well by being able to get onto the front foot to present the SNP and his government in a positive light, and it is that task which is frankly made pretty much impossible for so long as these allegations are in play.

"In other words, there is not necessarily going to be direct impact on SNP support, the problem is that it will make it more difficult for the SNP to recover and widen the lead over Labour it needs to do if it is going to hang on to most of its Westminster seats in 18 months time.”