Seemingly done SNP have craftily thrown Anas Sarwar a hand grenade with Scottish Budget

For a while, there, it looked like the SNP was done for. After almost two decades of political dominance in Scotland, it seemed the tide was turning against the nationalists. Bogged down in scandal, a once confident party had lost control of the political narrative. And, at the same time, Scottish Labour was on the rise.

When the SNP returned just nine Scottish MPs to Labour’s 37 in July’s general election, the mood in nationalist ranks grew deeply pessimistic. Suddenly, it was not just possible but likely that Labour’s Anas Sarwar would replace John Swinney as First Minister after the 2026 Holyrood election.

That outcome is now, I think, considerably less certain than it was. And the person responsible is the hitherto unremarkable SNP finance secretary Shona Robison.

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Last week, Robison announced a draft budget that puts Labour on the back foot.

(L-R) John Swinney of the SNP and Anas Sarwar of the Labour Party take part in BBC Scotland's UK General Election Debate at The University Of Glasgow in June. Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images(L-R) John Swinney of the SNP and Anas Sarwar of the Labour Party take part in BBC Scotland's UK General Election Debate at The University Of Glasgow in June. Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images
(L-R) John Swinney of the SNP and Anas Sarwar of the Labour Party take part in BBC Scotland's UK General Election Debate at The University Of Glasgow in June. Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

In advance of the budget statement, talk was about whether - by the time MSPs come to vote on Robison’s proposals in February - the SNP would have won enough support from opposition parties to get their plans through. Would the nationalists strike a deal with the Greens or the Liberal Democrats? Or would they be cut adrift, facing the prospect of losing the budget vote and the possible collapse of the Scottish Government?

That was, by an large, a confected drama. It’s abundantly clear - and has been for some time - that the Lib Dems are ready and willing to prop up the Nats. What’s more, none of the parties at Holyrood is in the mood to bring down the government and force an early election.

Since Robison’s statement on Wednesday, talk in the Scottish Parliament is not about how the SNP will win support for its budget but about how Labour will respond.

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In economic terms, Robison’s finance plans are shallow and unsophisticated - she promises popular giveaways such as an end to the two-child benefit cap and the restoration of the winter fuel allowance for pensioners while shying away from investment in serious reform of public services - but they are also tactically astute.

After two years during which the party’s fortunes steadily improved, Scottish Labour has not had the easiest few months. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s decision to end the Winter Fuel Allowance for OAPs was a gift to Labour’s nationalist opponents. For some time, Scottish Labour’s position has been that should it win the next election it will use the powers of devolution to restore the benefit but that detail has been rather drowned out by SNP attacks on Starmer.

Wiser Scottish Labour MSPs remain deeply concerned about the impact on their party’s fortunes of scrapping the fuel payment for pensioners. Starmer’s decision played into the SNP narrative that Labour is, fundamentally, no different to the Conservative Party.

Last month, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced an additional £3.4billion in funding for the Scottish Government. Ironically, it was that decision by the Chancellor that allowed the SNP to announce the restoration of benefits and, thus, put political pressure on Scottish Labour.

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The Scottish NHS is on its knees. Years of government neglect have left the health service on the brink of collapse. The SNP could have invested at least some of its additional funds in beginning to rebuild the NHS. Instead, much of the cash was used to honour public sector pay deals.

But none of that, I think, will cut through with voters when it comes to the vote on the budget.

Anas Sarwar and Labour’s finance spokesman Michael Marra now have three options. They could argue against Robison’s draft budget on the grounds that it does not represent the wise allocation of taxpayers’ money and then vote against it, they could accept the proposals and back them, or they could abstain when MSPs are asked to give their verdict.

There is not much to be gained by Labour through supporting the budget but the alternatives would be problematic for the party.

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I’m afraid it does not matter how flawed the SNP’s draft budget may be, Labour cannot afford to vote against proposals to bring back the winter fuel payment and to lift the two-child benefit caps.

In advance of the general election, it perfectly suited Anas Sarwar to be seen as extremely close to Keir Starmer. Labour’s message in Scotland - that only a vote to put Starmer in Downing Street would rid Scotland of Conservative MPs - was devastating to the SNP.

But now Sarwar could do with looking more like his own man and if supporting the SNP’s budget looks like an implicit criticism of UK government policy then so be it.

Robison’s draft budget is, in places, back-of-a-fag-packet stuff. The promise to end the two-child cap on access to benefits in Scotland has not been fully costed. The Scottish Fiscal Commission - which estimates the policy will cost £150m in its first year - has described the policy as a "risk”.

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The uncomfortable truth is that while it would be cynically hypocritical for Labour to support Robison’s budget, a vote against would be deeply harmful.

Former Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont once attempted to open up a debate on the SNP’s addiction to universal benefits. This backfired terribly, with the nationalists suggesting she was determined to take from the vulnerable. Labour certainly doesn’t need a repeat of that mess.

There are, I know, some Labour MSPs already adamant that they must vote against the budget when it comes before Holyrood in February.

The may think this is the right thing to do intellectually or even morally but it would, I think, be reckless.

With a sharply political budget that piles pressure on Labour, the SNP has shown it’s not done for, yet.

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