With the removal of Don't Knows or those who said they would not vote, the Lord Ashcroft poll for Holyrood Magazine and Conservative Home shows that 52 per cent of Scotland would back independence, compared to 48 per cent of those who would vote no.
The polling also showed a majority of those surveyed believed there will be a referendum in the next two years (the preferred timetable of First Minister Nicola Sturgeon) and a significant majority believe that Brexit makes independence more likely.
Nicola Sturgeon tweeted: "Majority of people in Scotland now want #Indyref2 and would vote for independence, according to new poll in @HolyroodDaily - attempts by the Tories to block Scotland’s right to choose our own future are undemocratic and unsustainable."
The SNP's Westminster leader Ian Blackford wrote: "There will be an independence referendum. It is the right of those living in Scotland to choose our own future. Westminster accepted Scotland’s claim of right and must allow the Scottish Parliament to determine the timeline of a referendum.
He added: "No mountain too high and no valley too deep for the independence campaign on the day that the Ashcroft poll shows a majority for independence! We are on our way to Scottish independence. It is coming."
Minister Fiona Hyslop tweeted: "Scotland’s on the move - majority of Scots now in favour of Independence in latest Ashcroft poll."
Depute Leader Keith Brown, who has been charged with increasing support for independence, wrote: " Very encouraging @LordAshcroft poll showing majority support for independence. We need to continue talking to people to convince more people that choosing our own future is the best future for Scotland."
Former Minister Marco Biagi sounded a note of caution in a detailed thread, posting: "Warnings now for the enthusiastic. We lack an Ashcroft 2014 poll to compare. Historically, YouGov has given the lowest estimates for Yes, Ipsos-MORI the highest, Survation and Panelbase in between. We don't know where Ashcroft polls rate on this spectrum of 'house effect.'"