Scottish independence referendum likely 'within two or three years' says Sir John Curtice

If the SNP win a majority, it would be difficult for the UK Government to refuse IndyRef2, the leading politics academic has said.

Sir John Curtice has said an independence referendum is likely within two or three years

Polling expert Sir John Curtice has said an independence referendum would be “difficult to avoid” in the next two or three years if the SNP win an outright majority at the 2020 Holyrood election.

The politics professor from the University of Strathclyde added that if such a result does occur, “precedent” around both the 2014 independence referendum and the 2016 EU referendum would make it difficult for the UK Government to block.

He added that the timing of the referendum was also out of the hands of politicians and said it would only happen in a “post pandemic world”.

Speaking to BBC Newsnight, Professor Curtice said: "At the moment one has to say that the SNP are well ahead in the opinion polls for next May, they certainly have a better than 50 per cent chance of being able to get an overall majority.

"If that does happen I think it will be difficult to avoid another referendum within shall we say a two or three year time period.”

He said the use of the ‘once in a generation’ referendum argument may not hold the weight opposition parties and unionists hope, with Professor Curtice stating that arguments which provided the government with mandates for the EU referendum and the original independence referendum would be contradicted if the SNP win.

He said: “The argument that the UK Government and many other unionists alongside them have been making and will continue to make between now and next May’s devolved election is indeed that the SNP in their view promised that the 2014 referendum was going to be a once in a generation event and they should stick to that.

"The trouble with that argument however is while you might want to argue that your opponent should keep what you think were their promises, you cannot assume that the electorate have to be bound by those promises.

"If the SNP do go into the Holyrood elections saying we want another referendum just like 2014, that’s what you’re voting for, and they get an overall majority in that election then the truth is the question the UK government will have to face is if that isn’t adequate evidence that a referendum would be held then what would be?

"What would be true is that such an outcome would replicate the outcome in 2011 which for David Cameron was sufficient evidence that the SNP had the moral right to hold a referendum on independence and it would also replicate the position in 2015 when David Cameron again, because he had an overall majority in that election, regarded that as a mandate for holding a referendum on Brexit.

"The difficulty I think is that precedent would make the argument difficult to pursue and certainly if you are concerned about democracy then you have to say what signal do you expect the people to say other than giving the SNP a majority.”

Sir John Curtice added that the Supreme Court might allow an independence referendum forced through by the Scottish Parliament without the UK Government’s agreement.

He also warned that unionist suggestions to agree an independence deal with the UK Government prior to any vote could make the case and likelihood of independence a “much more concrete prospect”.

He said: “The risk however is that you will be turning something which at the moment might be regarded as a nationalist aspiration if you are a unionist, indeed a nationalist fantasy, into something that was actually a concrete proposal.”

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