Scottish independence: one-third may switch sides in referendum

ONE third of Scots are still unsure about which way they will vote in the independence referendum but almost 80 per cent plan to cast their ballot, well above turnout levels at the 1997 devolution referendum, the latest polls suggest.

The majority of voters also believe the referendum should be held before the SNP’s preferred date of autumn 2014.

Scots look set to vote “no” according to the Ipsos/Mori poll which was carried out last weekend and asked the exact question which the SNP Government proposed in its recent consultation: “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?”

Support for keeping Scotland in the United Kingdom has fallen to 50 per cent, down seven points from last December, according to the poll. The gap has narrowed to those who back independence which remains static at 39 per cent.

Of the 1005 people surveyed in the poll, 780 – about 78 per cent – said they will definitely take part in the referendum. This compares with a 60 per cent turnout level for the devolution referendum 15 years ago.

One third of Scots said they may change their minds about the way they vote, with two-thirds (67 per cent) having made up their minds on the issue.

Mark Diffley, research director at Ipsos Mori, said: “Outright support for independence has not shifted significantly as a result of these early skirmishes although it does reveal that opposition to change has reduced with more voters now weighing up the issues before deciding which side to back.

“The poll also suggests that the Scottish Government’s proposed referendum question has not yet had a significant effect on public attitudes.”

Opinion is split on when the ballot should be held, but most want it sooner than the autumn 2014 date which has been named by Alex Salmond.

The most popular option, shared by 47 per cent of Scots, is for it to be held by the summer of 2013. Less than a quarter – 22 per cent – of respondents backed the autumn 2014 date.

Opponents of independence also appear less likely to switch, with 18 per cent saying they may change their mind. Supporters of going it alone appear less entrenched with 31 per cent indicating they could change their minds.

SNP referendum campaign director Angus Robertson said: “This is an excellent poll, confirming that the momentum is with the independence case. The common feature of every survey in recent weeks is rising support for independence and falling opposition.

“The dramatic narrowing of the gap from 19 to just 11 points in such a short space of time tells its own story. The people of Scotland are listening to the positive case put forward for independence while the Westminster-controlled anti-independence camp are confusing voters with the mixed messages and a dictatorial tone.”

Shadow Scottish secretary Margaret Curran, said the polls were not the “breakthrough” the SNP hoped for.

She added: “Scotland is a proud country and most people are proud to work in partnership with the rest of the UK.

“It is a necessity that the SNP does not strip the Electoral Commission of its role in setting the question. They are neutral, respected experts and must not be cut out of the process.”