Scottish independence: Labour set for huge majority despite SNP winning all bar four seats in Scotland

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Labour are set for an overwhelming landslide victory in the next general election despite the SNP winning all bar four seats in Scotland, boosting their hopes for a victory in a ‘de-facto’ referendum, a new poll has suggested.

The survey, which uses an MRP model that is considered to be more accurate than standard uniform national swing polls, suggests the Conservatives will be wiped out north of Lincolnshire, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak set to lose his seat.

Former prime ministers Liz Truss and Boris Johnson would also be ousted by Labour, who would return a 314-seat majority, far beyond the landslide victory of Tony Blair in 1997 who won a majority of 197.

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The poll, undertaken by Savanta with additional analysis by Electoral Calculus, interviewed 6,237 British adults aged 18 and over online from December 2 to 5. It predicts a vote share of 48 per cent for Labour, 28 per cent for the Conservatives, 11 per cent for the Liberal Democrats, Reform UK on 4 per cent, and the Greens on 3 per cent.

The SNP would remain the third largest party with 55 seats, with the Tories on 69 – just ten more than the entirety of Scotland. Lib Dem numbers would double from ten to 21 seats.

In terms of a de-facto referendum, the SNP will likely view the poll as backing their claim that Scots need not vote Labour to remove the Conservatives from office, and would be one seat below their 2015 result, which resulted in 56 SNP seats and 49.97 per cent of the popular vote.

Scottish Labour would gain the Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath and East Lothian constituencies, both held by Alba MPs Neale Hanvey and Kenny MacAskill respectively. Every Scottish Conservative would lose their seat in a complete wipe-out, with Orkney and Shetland remaining Liberal Democrat.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said the poll was reflective of the “widely differing electoral fortunes” of the two major UK parties. He said: "Last time we published an MRP model, I spoke of both the potential and precarious nature of the 56-seat majority and 12-point lead the poll gave the Labour Party during their conference.

Labour are set for a 314 seat majority at the next election, a poll has suggested.Labour are set for a 314 seat majority at the next election, a poll has suggested.
Labour are set for a 314 seat majority at the next election, a poll has suggested.

"Even the most optimistic Labour supporter would not have foreseen what was to come, such was the subsequent Conservative collapse, and therefore this latest MRP model reflects the position now, of two parties experiencing widely differing electoral fortunes.

"But we must still express caution. Many seats going to Labour in this model, including a few that could be deemed 'Red Wall', still indicate a 40 per cent or higher chance of remaining Conservative, and while that would have little impact on the overall election result, it does show that if Rishi Sunak can keep narrowing that Labour lead, point-by-point, the actual results come 2024 could look very different to this nowcast model."

Martin Baxter, founder and chief executive of Electoral Calculus, said: “This is an interesting poll, because it is the first MRP we have done since the Conservatives slid so far behind Labour, and therefore we have very little to compare it with. MRP results are different to applying uniform national swing (UNS) to the 2019 general election baseline. The UNS prediction would give the Conservatives about 24 more seats than this model.

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"Previous elections suggests that MRP is usually more accurate than UNS predictions, but we are in uncharted electoral waters and uncertainty is higher than usual."

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