Scottish Budget: Police Scotland warns of ‘severe’ consequences unless funding boosted

The force said a flat cash settlement would cause ‘significant disruption’

Police officer numbers could drop by almost 1,500 and the force could move to a “reduced attendance model” nationwide if it does not receive extra funding from the Scottish Government, it has been warned.

Police Scotland said a “flat cash” funding settlement in 2024/25 – where the settlement remains the same in cash terms as the previous year – would cause “a significant disruption to services”.

This is likely to include “a reduction in visible local policing”, it said, as well as delays in attending calls and the nationwide adoption of a “reduced attendance model”.

Police Scotland have issued a fresh warning about cutbacks ahead of next month's Scottish Budget. Picture: John Devlin

Meanwhile, the force’s capacity to pro-actively investigate organised crime groups, effectively respond to major events and incidents, and manage community tensions would all be “impacted”.

Police Scotland also warned the move could lead to an inability to “effectively keep people safe in the online space” or “support the implementation of new legislation”, as well as inhibiting its capacity to keep Scotland’s road users safe.

In a report to be discussed at a meeting of the Scottish Police Authority later this week, James Gray, Police Scotland’s chief financial officer, asked for a £74.5 million increase in revenue funding, along with a boost of £26.4m in capital and £5m in its reform budget.

It comes as Shona Robison, the deputy first minister and finance secretary, prepares to set out the draft Scottish Budget next month. She has warned it will be one of the most difficult under devolution, pointing to funding pressures and inflation-driven pay deals.

Shona Robison. Picture: PA

Ms Robison said the size of the public sector workforce “will have to reduce”, but added the Scottish Government wants to avoid compulsory redundancies.

In a review of the Scottish Government’s spending until the end of the parliamentary term, released last year by then finance secretary Kate Forbes, the police service would have received a flat cash settlement, which would amount to a real terms cut in funding.

In his report, Mr Gray said: “Flat-cash funding would have severe operational consequences, causing a significant disruption to services as savings would have to be achieved through salami slicing, as opposed to efficiency or organisational redesign.”

The report said this would see a reduction of up to 1,427 full-time equivalent roles – a drop of 6.4 per cent – by March 31, 2025, which could only be achieved through the continuation of a recruitment freeze throughout 2024/25, alongside an “extensive” voluntary redundancy programme.

“The impact of flat-cash could be minimised by implementing a pay freeze for 2024/25, but this would have further operational implications and would still require significant workforce reductions,” the report added.

The report said a flat-cash offer would result in 3,110 full-time equivalent job losses from 2024/25 to 2027/28. If a pay freeze was imposed, this could be reduced to 2,461.

Police Scotland previously sparked controversy after announcing a pilot project in the north east in which some minor crimes will no longer be investigated.

David Kennedy, general secretary of the Scottish Police Federation, said the Government had “to do better”. He said the force "cannot afford to have any more cuts".

A Scottish Government spokeswoman said: “Policing is a priority for this Government, which is why, despite difficult financial circumstances due to UK Government austerity, we increased police funding by £80m to £1.45 billion in 2023/24. There are 379 more officers than in 2007 and Scotland continues to have more police officers per capita than England and Wales.

“The deputy first minister said last week that the UK Government’s Autumn Statement delivered the ‘worst-case scenario’ for Scotland’s finances. Ministers are assessing the full implications of that statement as they develop a Budget that meets the needs of the people of Scotland, in line with our missions of equality, community and opportunity.”

Elsewhere, GMB Scotland secretary Louise Gilmour criticised the Scottish Government after Ms Robison warned of looming job cuts.

She said: “We hear many warm words from ministers about the importance of public sector workers, but actions count more than words. Our members in local authorities have only recently accepted a pay deal when they were given clear and firm assurance that it would not be paid for by job cuts and reduced services.

“Now, just weeks later, we are told jobs will be cut and services reduced. That raises serious questions, not only about trust and competence but, more importantly, this Government’s commitment to protect public services.”

She also hit out at the pledge to freeze council tax next year, adding: “The rush for a cheap headline today is risking vital jobs and services tomorrow. The proposed council tax freeze is only another example of the short-term thinking that has placed so many of our frontline public services in such jeopardy.”

Councillor Shona Morrison, president of council body Cosla, said investing in local government could prevent problems in areas such as justice and the health service.

She said: “For many years, the health service has taken up an ever-increasing share of public sector resource in Scotland – treating people at the sharp end costs too much money and is much worse for outcomes. The solution lies in a whole system focused on preventing people getting ill in the first place.

“I am not just focusing on health. We recently heard the Scottish Parliament’s justice committee calling for more money for justice – again that is treating the problem rather than the symptoms. We should be preventing people from going to prison or encountering the justice system in the first place – through youth work and diversionary services like culture and leisure. With constrained public sector finances, it has never been as important to support people as early as possible and keep them living well locally.

“Cutting frontline staff is not the answer. Investing in local government can prevent problems occurring in the first place.”